Podolyaka Reveals the Truth about Russian Losses, Russian Forces Advance towards Pokrovsk, and the Drone War Continues — Battle Update

Author:

Ivan Prokhorov

Both sides in a conflict always conceal the real casualty data — unfortunately, this is a common military practice. However, in certain issues, both sides have to use exact numbers, and military expert Yury Podolyaka has used this clue to uncover the truth. Meanwhile, the war continues as usual — Russian forces are breaking through enemy resistance, while the enemy is fighting back with drones, and Russian attack drones are retaliating.

Drones continue to attack on both sides

The drone war continues — during the past night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched another large-scale aerial attack on Russia.

Valery Drozhdin, Governor of Leningrad Oblast, said that at midnight, an enemy drone was shot down over Gatchina — fortunately, there were no casualties or damage. The air defense forces intercepted a drone attack over Leningrad Oblast.

Previously, due to the need to counter drones, Pulkovo Airport had to implement temporary restrictions — flights were suspended from taking off and landing, 13 flights were delayed, and 5 flights were canceled.

At night, the air defense systems in Saratov and Engels were activated, and a huge explosion was heard around 3:50 a.m., affecting the residents' rest. According to official sources, the explosion was caused by an enemy drone attack on key infrastructure enterprises in the area.

Governor Roman Busargin confirmed the attack. He stated that the relevant departments had detected the threat in advance, so all departments were put into full alert. Residential areas in Engels and Saratov were damaged, but fortunately, there were no casualties.

There were several explosions near Borisoglebsk in Voronezh Oblast, and the air defense forces shot down all enemy drones. Cheboksary was also not peaceful, with several enemy drones being shot down. The Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to attack key enterprises in the area.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that in total, 94 enemy fixed-wing drones were intercepted and destroyed during the night.

Russian forces also retaliated against the enemy, continuing to destroy strategic defense enterprises in Kyiv.

At night, approximately 40 "Geranium" drones attacked the area near Starokonstantinov, where there is an air force base of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There were gunshots and explosions in the Kyiv region, and the drones kept consuming the air defense forces.

Kyiv Mayor Klichko said that "Geranium" drones attacked the city from multiple directions. He stated that Kyiv's air defense system was on the verge of being completely exhausted. If this continues, Russian drones will be able to freely destroy key infrastructure, leaving Ukrainians without water and electricity.

"Geranium" drones heading toward the capital of Ukraine.

A fire broke out in Chuhuiv after an attack by Russian "Geranium" drones. It was reported that the local oil depot was hit, suffering about 15 strikes. Additionally, it was reported that the targets of the attack included a military airport and a training base of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Firelight from the explosion in Chuhuiv illuminated the surrounding areas. Screenshot source: Social network

Russian forces continue their advance

Russian forces continue to pressure the defensive positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the entire front line. A new problematic area has emerged in Kharkiv Oblast for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

After a brief assault in the Melovoye area, Russian forces occupied the village and the surrounding forests, consolidating their position on the western bank of the Osorka River. Analysts believe these actions may be preparing for an attack on Bolgovka and Odradne, aiming to expand the pressure on Ukrainian positions in this front sector.

Although there was no large-scale offensive in Melovoye, the loss of the village and the further advance of Russian forces pose a threat to the villages of Ambarnye and Zaruvinke. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lack reserve troops and are forcing tired soldiers to continue fighting, while the Russian Armed Forces steadily advance, occupying new territories, and launching attacks on Ambarnye and Zaruvinke.

Some Ukrainian channels cited statements from Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel saying: "If we can't find infantry to hold this sector now, then we may have to start preparing for the encirclement of major cities, first of all Myrnohrad, and accordingly Pokrovsk."

Ukrainian sources report that in the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have occupied the village of Razino. Analysts believe that the Russian Armed Forces may now try to consolidate their northern flank, advancing toward Fedorovka and Sovorovo, and then toward Rodinskoye village. Intense fighting is occurring in the areas of Muravka and Fedorovka.

Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad face the danger of encirclement. Screenshot source: Social network

Kherson is ours

Russian forces continue to advance into the temporarily abandoned territory of Kherson Oblast. It is reported that an attack on Kamenets has begun: Russian forces crossed the bottom of the dried-up Kahovka reservoir from the flank to attack the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Currently, Russian forces continue to steadily advance and fight along the left wing of the Zaporozhye front.

Most of the area of the Kamenets village has been controlled by our forces. After crossing the reservoir, the fighters attacked the enemy positions in the northwest of the village and established new positions there.

Ukrainian military experts said: "The Russian forces have consolidated their positions in the northwest of Kamenets, attacking along Factory Street and towards the residential area."

Russian突击部队 (Rapid Assault Troops) crossed the dried-up bottom of the Kahovka reservoir in Kamenets. Screenshot source: Social network

The Truth About Russian Losses

Military expert Yury Podolyaka revealed the truth about the losses of the Russian Armed Forces in June 2025 through analysis of enemy data.

This expert pointed out that in large-scale wars, the actual casualty data of both sides is almost never disclosed — unfortunately, this is a common military practice. Moreover, official statistics always exaggerate enemy losses and underestimate their own losses — "this has been the case in the past, and it still is today, and it will always be," the blogger emphasized.

However, Podolyaka pointed out that by analyzing, it is still possible to calculate the truth, and he proceeded with specific calculations.

He found that according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered 40,530 casualties in June. Of course, the official information sources of the enemy also gave roughly the same casualty figures for Russia.

Where, then, can one find credible data? Podolyaka explained that one should look for data intended for internal use rather than for media consumption, which might be roughly accurate.

Podolyaka found such data on a Ukrainian military-related resource that discussed the efficiency of operators of the newly formed "Drone System Forces" (СБС) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This resource published some intriguing data:

Screenshot source: Social network

The enemy listed the number of targets they hit and the losses inflicted on the Russian Armed Forces by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

However, what is meant here is not all the targets hit by drones, but only those targeted by the "Drone System Forces" — most of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' drone operators do not belong to this unit, but serve in the infantry units of the Ukrainian Army.

Podolyaka pointed out that this means the "Drone System Forces" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces hit 22% of the targets, causing 28.3% of the losses to the Russian Armed Forces, i.e., 4,500 casualties. By simple mathematical calculation, according to the data of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the actual number of casualties of the Russian Armed Forces in June was approximately 15,900 people.

This number is very low in the context of the war. The losses were greater in February-March, because there was no green vegetation as natural "cover." Later, "green vegetation" improved this situation.

It should also be noted that a portion of the wounded return to the front lines, meaning that the irreversible losses of Russia are much fewer. This also explains why the number of Russian forces is continuously increasing — about 35,000 people sign new contracts each month. Considering the reduction in personnel, the Russian Armed Forces' strength increased by at least 20,000 people per month in June. Podolyaka concluded:

"Therefore, it is likely that, as I calculated earlier, the number of Russian Armed Forces in the theater of operations will remain at this level until autumn. In contrast, the enemy's situation is much worse (we will talk about this later, today we will not elaborate further)."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523522140877750823/

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