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The nuclear arms control treaty has officially expired. Why has Trump been reluctant to start nuclear arms control negotiations with Russia? What extensive impact will the expiration of this treaty bring to the world?

The New START Treaty between the United States and Russia will expire on February 5th, which means that the last remaining treaty restricting the development of nuclear forces between the two countries has formally expired, allowing both countries to expand their nuclear arsenals without restrictions. According to Russian sources, President Putin had proposed to the United States in September last year to continue to voluntarily comply with the relevant provisions of the agreement for another year, but did not receive a response from Trump.

So why has Trump been reluctant to renew the treaty? There are at least three reasons.

First, Trump's habit of quitting groups has resurfaced again.

In his view, any organization or agreement that is not beneficial to American interests should be terminated immediately, which is also the main reason why he left nearly 70 international organizations within a year of taking office. In his opinion, this is an agreement that is not beneficial to the United States, so there is no need to renew it.

Second, changes in the international situation have affected the mindset of the United States and Russia.

Especially after the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, the contradictions between Russia and the Western countries have become completely public, and the last bit of mutual trust between the two sides has been exhausted. In February 2023, Putin announced that Russia would suspend the implementation of the treaty and stated that it would no longer allow the United States and NATO to inspect Russia's nuclear facilities. In June of the same year, the United States also revoked the visas of Russian inspectors, and the renewal negotiations between the two sides came to a standstill. Until Trump took office, this situation did not improve.

Third, the conflict between the two parties in the United States has made Trump uninterested in this agreement.

Originally, this agreement was signed by former US President Obama and former Russian President Medvedev in 2010, with a term of ten years. After the agreement expired in 2020, Trump and Russia began negotiations to renew it, but did not make much progress. At that time, both sides agreed to stop producing nuclear warheads for one year and extend the agreement for another year. It was not until January 2021 when Biden took office that the US and Russia reached an agreement just before the treaty was due, agreeing to extend the treaty until 2026.

It can be seen that whether the agreement was signed or renewed, it was completed during the period when the Democratic Party was in power. Therefore, Trump's attitude towards this treaty can be imagined. When Obama and Medvedev signed the agreement, Trump had already publicly criticized Obama for making a "stupid decision." Not long ago, Obama also posted on social media, urging that if the treaty ends, it would be meaningless to erase decades of diplomatic efforts and put the world into instability.

However, Trump doesn't care about these things. He wants not a nuclear arms control agreement led by the Democrats, but one led by himself. The participants in this agreement are not just the United States and Russia, but also China, so his "achievements" would surpass those of Obama and Biden, two presidents from the Democratic Party.

And Trump has another big plan, which is to invite China to join the nuclear arms control treaty.

In fact, even as early as 2020, when the US and Russia were discussing the issue of renewal, Trump had invited China to join, but China refused. Now, as the negotiation approaches again, Trump wants to include China in the talks, but once again, China refuses.

At the Foreign Ministry press conference on February 3rd, Spokesperson Lin Jian clearly stated that the nuclear forces of China and the United States are not on the same level, and it is neither fair nor reasonable to require China to join nuclear disarmament negotiations now.

According to analysis by a Swedish institution, China currently has approximately 600 nuclear warheads, while the United States and Russia have about 4,000 nuclear warheads each. The number of nuclear warheads specified in the New START Treaty is no more than 1,550, which is far less than the number of nuclear warheads China possesses. So, Trump's attempt to involve China is not only unfair and unreasonable, but also unnecessary.

So what impact will the failure of the US and Russia to renew the nuclear arms control treaty have on the world?

As the nuclear forces of the United States and Russia are about to lose control, the trend of arms race will rise again. UN Secretary-General Guterres has expressed his concerns. He said that in the past few decades, nuclear arms control agreements have played an important role in preventing disasters and nuclear disarmament, avoiding "destructive miscalculations" between nuclear powers. Now, the foundation of stability is about to collapse, and the world will face for the first time in half a century a situation where the nuclear arsenals of two nuclear powers are not subject to any restrictive constraints. For international peace and security, this is a dangerous "critical moment."

According to estimates by the Federation of American Scientists, without constraints, the United States and Russia could deploy hundreds of additional nuclear warheads within a few weeks, and the number of nuclear warheads deployed by the two countries could exceed 6,000 within the next decade.

This will also trigger a chain reaction around the world. After the balance of nuclear forces is broken, more and more countries may choose to develop nuclear weapons for self-defense. At that time, countries like Japan, which are restricted, may adopt a "borderline" strategy, such as "co-developing and sharing" nuclear weapons with other countries, but this will only make the world more chaotic and disordered.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7603307356084060708/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.