Reference News Network, December 22 report: The UK's Financial Times website published an article titled "Europe Faces the Risk of a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy About the Russian Threat" on December 19. The author is Hannah Notte, Director of the Eurasia Non-Proliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in the US. The article is translated as follows:

As the end of the war in Ukraine approaches, Europe's concerns about Russia's potential future attacks on NATO countries have taken on a new urgency, even a sense of inevitability.

In November, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius cited warnings from military historians that "we have passed the last peaceful summer." Soon after, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte predicted, "We are the next target of Russia." British Chief of Defence Staff Richard Nott also expressed similar concerns, urging Britain's "children" to be ready to step forward if Russia attacked Britain.

Putin recently warned that if Europe were to start a war, Russia would be prepared to fight and leave Europe "without anyone to negotiate with Russia." The U.S. new national security strategy warned of the danger of "civilization annihilation" across Europe and tilted U.S. policy toward usually Moscow-friendly "European patriotic parties." This strategy highlights the risk of Europe being strategically isolated when confronting Russia.

Considering these troubling situations, European officials hope to sound the alarm about potential future attacks by Russia while conveying the significance of the stakes involved to their citizens.

However, sounding the alarm about war also has its pitfalls.

The first is an analytical pitfall. Some Europeans previously mistakenly believed that Russia would not attack Ukraine in February 2022, and now they seem to be overcorrecting their previous judgment, convincing themselves and others that an attack on Europe by Russia is inevitable.

This overcorrection could fuel confirmation bias—the tendency to seek evidence that supports one's fears while ignoring any contrary signs. However, sober analysis must always consider the possibility that, regardless of how hostile it may be, Russia will not risk launching a large-scale attack on NATO countries. Analysis should take into account the possibility that Moscow may believe its current response strategy is sufficient to achieve its goals, or that Russia still believes more in the United States' commitment to NATO collective defense than Europeans do.

Much more problematic is that portraying the war with Russia as unavoidable may escalate tensions. The panic in Europe has already prompted more Russian senior officials to think in mirror image. They claim that it is the rearming Europe that is preparing to wage war against Russia, aiming to cause a "strategic failure" for Russia.

Now, with Trump more willing to engage in dialogue with Russia, Russian propagandists are seizing the opportunity to portray their so-called "aggressive Europe" as the new number one enemy. According to a recent survey, the proportion of Russians who view "Europe as an enemy" has increased significantly over the past year.

With both sides continuously escalating their rhetoric, Russia may be more inclined to view certain actions (such as Baltic states intercepting Russian vessels) as preludes to an attack and respond accordingly. In other words, the more one side believes the war is coming, the more the other side believes it too.

Due to the lack of direct communication channels between Europe and Russia that can clarify intentions during heightened tensions, the danger of war becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy is further exacerbated.

Caught between Russia and the fickle Trump administration, European countries investing in deterrence and defense is the right move. But if they believe a war with Russia is inevitable, they may accelerate the very conflict they wish to avoid.

Hostile relations with Russia will remain a norm in Europe's security landscape for a long time to come. Therefore, for Europeans, it is more important than ever to seek communication channels to reduce the military risks of conflict with Russia and carefully weigh their words and actions. (Translated by Zhao Feifei)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7586947383917855295/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.