Reference News Network, July 31 report - According to TASS on July 29, the latest report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the prospects for global economic development stated that the IMF has raised its growth forecast for China's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 by 0.8 percentage points, to 4.8%.

The report said: "The 2025 GDP growth forecast for China has been increased by 0.8 percentage points from the April forecast, to 4.8%. This adjustment reflects that the economic activity in the first half of 2025 in China is higher than previously expected, and the actual tariffs between the U.S. and China have significantly decreased."

The IMF also raised its growth forecast for China's economy in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, to 4.2%. The authors of the report pointed out that this also reflects that the actual implemented tariffs are lower than expected.

According to the website of Germany's "China Platform", on July 30, despite the continued escalation of trade disputes, the IMF still raised its global economic growth forecast. The organization announced on July 29 in Washington that it expects global economic output to grow by 3.0% this year and by 3.1% in 2026.

This is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the global economic forecasts in April. Experts at this financial institution attribute this to importers stockpiling ahead of the threat of additional tariffs by the U.S. government, as well as a more optimistic assessment of China.

According to official data from the Chinese government, the country's economy grew by 5.2% in the second quarter. The IMF predicts that China, the world's second-largest economy, will achieve a growth rate of 4.8% this year, rather than the previously forecasted 4.0%.

The German Broadcasting Station website reported on July 29 that the IMF published an updated report on July 29, raising its growth expectations for emerging markets and developing economies this year from a previous forecast of 3.7% to 4.1%. This positive outlook is mainly due to companies' pre-purchase activities to avoid tariffs, as well as a more positive assessment of China's economic outlook.

In this round of economic forecast upgrades, China's economy received the largest increase. The IMF predicts that this second-largest economy will achieve a growth of 4.8% this year, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the 4.0% forecast in April.

A key factor behind the significant upward revision of China's economic forecast is the substantial reduction in U.S.-China tariffs. The IMF's latest forecast shows that the actual tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on China has dropped to 17.3%, while the rate used in calculations in April was as high as 24.4%.

However, the IMF warned that the global economic outlook faces downward risks. The IMF believes that the current global trade policy stance is in a "fragile balance," with heightened geopolitical tensions, and larger fiscal deficits that could lead to higher interest rates and tighter global financial conditions, all of which are significant challenges.

Reuters reported on July 29 that the IMF slightly raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing stronger-than-expected purchases before the significant increase in U.S. tariffs on August 1, and the actual tariff rate on China dropping from 24.4% to 17.3%. However, it warned that the global economy faces major risks, including possible tariff rebounds, escalating geopolitical tensions, and larger fiscal deficits that could lead to higher interest rates and a tighter global financial environment.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said: "The world economy is still hurting, and it will continue to hurt, because tariffs are at such levels, although not as bad as they might have been."

In its update to the April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0%, and for 2026 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%. However, this is still below the 3.3% growth rate it predicted for this year and next year in January, and the historical average of 3.7% before the pandemic. The organization said that global inflation is expected to drop to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, but it noted that U.S. inflation is likely to remain above target because tariffs will pass on to American consumers later this year.

The IMF expects the U.S. economic growth rate to reach 1.9% in 2025, up 0.1 percentage points from the April outlook, and to rise slightly to 2% in 2026. The IMF said that the new tax and spending bill is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by 1.5 percentage points, with tariff revenues offsetting about half of that.

It raised its growth forecast for the eurozone in 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0%, and kept its 2026 growth forecast at 1.2%. The IMF said that the revised growth forecast for the eurozone reflected a historic sharp increase in Ireland's exports of pharmaceuticals to the United States. Without this factor, the increase would have been only half as much.

The IMF raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%. It said that overall, emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, and slightly decrease to 4.0% in 2026.

The IMF raised its forecast for world trade by 0.9 percentage points to 2.6%, but lowered its 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%. (Translated by Yang Xinpeng, Li Ran, Nie Lita)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7533168419147923987/

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