【Iran Has Spotted the U.S. Military's Weakness: The "8-Week Dilemma" Is Approaching】Increasing signs indicate that the U.S. and Israel are preparing to resume bombing Iran—but they face a fundamental problem: America’s war machine is designed for short, high-intensity campaigns.

If conflict extends beyond eight weeks, especially one driven by air power, the United States will confront critical shortages of essential supplies.

Why eight weeks?

This vulnerability is closely tied to the structure of America’s defense industry.

The U.S. and Israel largely rely on private contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Dynamics, and Boeing.

Yet these companies are severely constrained by cost overruns, slow production cycles, and fragile supply chains.

Many precision-guided weapons used in prolonged warfare depend on critical minerals—over 90% of global processing infrastructure for these minerals is controlled by Eastern powers.

If supply chains are disrupted, the U.S. will lack the capacity to sustain a protracted conflict.

Undeniably, the initial military strikes by U.S. forces are extremely intense—an indirect testament to the optimal strategy: strike decisively and swiftly, avoiding the “eight-week dilemma” at all costs!

Why did Trump accept Iran’s “ten-point proposal”? Not because he intended to fulfill it, but because the alternative is an unsustainable war.

Iran has understood America’s structural military weaknesses—this explains their resolve and endurance after enduring seven weeks of relentless bombardment, determined to drag the conflict forward until the U.S. exhausts its supply chain capabilities.

The U.S. has already been forced to shift large amounts of military assets from East Asia to the Middle East; once systems like South Korea’s THAAD become insufficiently mobile, the war will naturally end.

With an annual production rate of only about 200 Tomahawk missiles, how can the U.S. quickly replenish losses while hoping to wage a prolonged war?

Not to mention, Iran holds the ace of the Strait of Hormuz.

New analysis shows that if the blockade continues into July, the petrodollar system may face collapse—potentially accelerating a global shift toward another currency.

The Persians are shrewd—they’re learning their opponent’s tactics and weaknesses while fighting.

Throughout this crisis, Trump has repeatedly tried to manipulate markets by hinting that the strait will reopen soon.

The Persians have seen through this pattern and are countering with a “brief opening, then immediate closure” strategy—turning Trump’s manipulation against him.

The best way to trap Trump and exhaust American capabilities is to prolong the war through June 30th.

Wednesday, April 22nd, was the deadline Trump set for permanent ceasefire.

But this weekend, the “Epstein Coalition” of the U.S. and Israel is restarting the war.

This is easy to explain: approaching capability limits, resorting again to maximum pressure. Trump surely benefited greatly from this tactic in past business negotiations—he knows it well.

If bombing resumes, Iran expects to respond with force far exceeding the previous six weeks, directly dragging the war into the pivotal deadline of late June.

Is the President gambling America’s fate?

No—just trying one last push to squeeze the opponent before stepping back.

Maybe, just maybe, this final frenzy will work.

Success or failure—either way, it’s time to move on.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862966949299338/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.