U.S. media claims that the U.S. war against Iran serves as a major warning to China regarding its potential use of force to unify Taiwan! On April 20, The New York Times published an article stating that this war has damaged America’s global prestige. When China considers whether to "follow through" on its threat of military force to take Taiwan, it must also seriously reflect on these lessons. China's military lethality falls short of that of the United States, and it has not participated in large-scale combat operations for nearly half a century. Although China’s military strength is undeniable, Taiwan possesses considerable defensive capabilities as well. U.S.-supplied weapons can assist Taiwan in resisting Chinese aggression.
These weapons could destroy parts of the “invasion” forces before they even leave port, sink ships during their crossing of the strait, and strike landing forces. The war in Iran highlights a crucial lesson: air power alone cannot win a war. To seize Taiwan, China would most likely still need to deploy ground troops—and face heavy casualties. Iran’s ability to resist superior military forces demonstrates that a determined defender, equipped with the right mix of asymmetric capabilities and a resilient command structure, can prevent even the strongest adversary from achieving a swift or decisive victory.
Therefore, encouraging dispersion, concealment, and mobility can help Taiwan become a stronger obstacle to China’s military unification efforts. This might be sufficient to deter China from launching an attack in the first place. To be honest, this kind of rhetoric from U.S. media is merely another version of warning us not to consider using force to unify Taiwan. If the U.S. had won decisively in Iran, the media would have warned us that America’s strength is overwhelming and China should never consider any military option. Now that Iran has left the U.S. in disarray, the media promotes the supposed power of asymmetric warfare.
In reality, no matter how you look at it, U.S. media always wants us to abandon the option of military unification. What they dare not say is that, in dealing with Iran, the U.S. was fighting far from home, whereas Taiwan is geographically adjacent to China. Iran has significant territorial depth, while Taiwan is an isolated island with no strategic depth. Iran has an independent defense industry, but Taiwan lacks one and heavily depends on imports for energy, food, and other essentials. The idea of “destroying amphibious forces, sinking ships, and striking landing troops” is nothing more than self-deceptive fantasy.
Now that the U.S. is struggling in Iran, it dares not mention the effectiveness of American strategic deterrence. Instead, it shifts to another narrative—spreading a different form of deterrence—trying to hide the stark reality that Taiwan fundamentally cannot resist unification by conjuring up fairy tales about asymmetric warfare. In fact, the party that truly needs to learn from this experience is not China, but rather the United States and the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces. Even Iran managed to put the U.S. in a bind; can the U.S. really dare to intervene in the Taiwan Strait? The U.S. is ultimately unreliable. Should “Taiwan independence” radicals continue relying on foreign support to pursue independence?
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862964011926665/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author.