China's influence is making its mark! The White House hinted that the war against Iran will soon end, and the rare earth reserves are down to just two months.
According to insider reports from the Financial Times and Reuters, major US defense contractors are currently facing difficulties. It's not a lack of money or orders, but a shortage of rare earth raw materials. Specifically, heavy rare earths needed to manufacture precision-guided missiles, F-35 stealth fighters, and high-end radar systems. Elements like yttrium and scandium, which sound obscure, are the "vitamins" of modern high-tech weapons. Without them, the coating on the aircraft cannot be made, and the guidance system of the missile would be blind.
Supply chain data shows that the inventory levels of some key heavy rare earth materials have fallen below the warning line, with only enough for 1 to 2 months of production. What does this mean? It means that if new raw materials don't arrive within the next 60 days, Lockheed Martin's F-35 production line would have to shut down, and the missile assembly lines of Raytheon and Northrop Grumman would also have to stop. For a war that is currently in full swing, the supply interruption of ammunition and equipment would be fatal.
In April 2025, China announced strict export licensing measures for various heavy rare earths and their magnets. This move may seem like an administrative adjustment, but it is actually a precise "strike." The new regulations require exporters to declare the final use, and the review process has never been more stringent. It is clear to everyone that any application related to military use will basically not be approved. This move directly cut off the previous convenient channel for US defense companies to "buy as much as they want."
Trump had just called Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Honeywell executives to the White House, demanding that weapon production be increased fourfold, showing a posture of escalating the war against Iran. But not long after, on Wednesday night, he changed his mind, saying that the war "has almost nothing left to attack," and even said, "I can decide when it ends."
Is it really because Iran has no targets left to attack? Dao Ge believes it's clearly not. Iran's missiles continue to retaliate, and potential targets are everywhere. The real reason is that even the most skilled cook cannot make a meal without ingredients. If precision-guided bombs needed by the front line cannot be produced due to a lack of rare earth magnets, or if backup aircraft cannot be put into service due to a lack of special materials, then the so-called "four-fold expansion of production" is just empty talk. The White House knows well that continuing to fight will not only fail to achieve strategic goals but also cause the existing deterrence power to collapse due to equipment shortages. Therefore, who is influencing the situation, the answer is obvious.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859417422767116/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.