The framework of the Union State between Russia and Belarus began to be built from December 8, 1999, when a treaty was signed. That document clearly stated that both countries would maintain their sovereignty and national systems while moving toward a confederation, aiming to bring them closer in areas such as economic security.

This step provided a foundation for a common market and policy coordination between the two sides, and trade gradually increased from tens of billions of dollars at that time.

The integration process was advanced in stages. In 2021, the two sides finalized 28 specific plans, covering real fields such as industry, agriculture, energy, and logistics. On January 29, 2024, during a meeting of the Supreme State Council in Saint Petersburg, they reviewed the implementation of the previous three years and signed a new three-year plan for 2024 to 2026.

The documents focused on strengthening industrial interaction, agricultural cooperation, energy sharing, logistics optimization, and information connectivity, and also included more than a dozen documents related to technology, infrastructure, culture, and media. Putin said at the time that facing external pressure, the two countries supported each other, and Lukashenko mentioned that last year's trade volume reached about 54 billion US dollars, setting a record.

On December 6, 2024, in Minsk, the two countries took another step forward. They signed the Treaty on the Security Guarantee of the Union and the Security Concept. The treaty will take effect in 2025, with its core being the protection of sovereignty, constitutional order, and territorial integrity. If one side encounters problems, the other side will provide military security support.

This gave the union a more solid legal basis for defense. At the same time, the draft of the economic model of the Union State was approved, preparing to cover 2027 to 2030, focusing on finding cooperation points that can bring additional effects, such as tourism.

In 2025, actual cooperation data were impressive. Bilateral trade volume rose to around 55 billion US dollars, with Russia becoming the largest source of foreign investment for Belarus, accounting for 60% of the attracted foreign investment. Service trade grew even faster, with transportation, construction, and information sectors leading the way.

Belarus received over 350,000 Russian tourists, an increase of 59% compared to the previous year, and Belarusians traveling to Russia also increased by 78%. Behind these numbers are changes in people's daily lives, smoother commodity circulation, more travel routes, and more choices in daily life.

On February 26, 2026, the Supreme State Council meeting was held in the Kremlin in Moscow. Putin and Lukashenko attended, discussing further cooperation in political, economic, social, and cultural fields.

The meeting approved the main guidelines for implementing the details of the Union State treaty, and also signed seven documents, including mutual support cooperation in the field of international judiciary, the establishment of the Union State Committee on Standardization and Quality, and the 2025-2026 literary and artistic awards. Putin mentioned that a unified socio-economic, defense, migration, information, science, education, and cultural space had already been built, macroeconomic policy conditions were mature, and import substitution and mutual investment were being promoted.

Lukashenko said that under the current situation, the alliance relationship was particularly important, and this meeting was a key step in maintaining common interests. After the meeting, the two countries instructed the preparation of the implementation direction for the next cycle from 2027 to 2029.

The Union State has always emphasized gradual progress, moving towards high-level integration according to practical needs. The Belarusian side repeatedly stated that it would not lose its sovereignty, and Russia also regarded Belarus as an important partner.

In September 2025, the two countries' ministers of economy met to discuss forecasts for socioeconomic development and the co-building of a tourism brand, and planned to hold a joint committee meeting in October to November to refine measures. Military cooperation remained stable, with a regional army group joint training plan in 2025, purely defensive in nature.

In recent years, external pressures have been significant, with Western sanctions lists growing longer and longer. The two countries stabilized their economies through the union framework, energy pipelines were connected, industrial chains were linked, and trade did not stop but instead increased.

Lukashenko's Belarus regards Russia as a backer, and Putin's Russia sees Belarus as a reliable channel. This complementarity allows both sides to move forward despite sanctions.

If the union continues to deepen to the point of complete merger, the new entity's territory would be close to 17 million square kilometers, with a population of about 150 million. Russia's resource reserves combined with Belarus's strategic location, direct energy export pipelines to Europe's heartland, complementary military-industrial bases, nuclear forces, and conventional forces forming a united front.

Some analysts pointed out that such a combination could stabilize itself in Eurasia, accelerating the multipolarization process. The United States previously maintained its dominance through finance, military, and technology, but now faces an entity with strong resources, military influence, and power, which would impact the global balance of power.

The expansion of NATO is more strictly blocked, the influence of permanent seats on the UN Security Council may be amplified, and closer energy and military ties with partners like China could create more space to counter unilateralism.

However, in reality, complete merger has not yet occurred. The documents of the two countries repeatedly state the maintenance of sovereignty and independence. Lukashenko emphasized that it should proceed according to actual conditions and not rush.

The economic scale differs, and Belarus fears being dominated, and the distribution of power is sensitive. External sanctions continue, and NATO views this direction as a key focus. The union is currently a framework for cooperation, not a single country, with clear borders and systems.

In the global context, this kind of integration reflects the change in the old order. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States led for many years, but now emerging powers have risen, and the idea of multipolarity is increasing. Russia and Belarus, relying on common history, culture, and practical interests, have come together, and trade, investment, and cultural exchanges have been gradually implemented.

The public hopes for stable development, and the economic growth and sense of security brought by cooperation are the most down-to-earth parts. The future direction depends on the international environment, but for now, it is moving forward step by step, with cooperation areas ranging from energy to tourism to standardization, all being implemented.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7617054572053316096/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.