Reference News Network, January 26 report: The UK's Financial Times website published an article titled "Always Be Cautious of a Declining Superpower" on January 21. The author is Janan Ganesh. Excerpts from the article are as follows:

70 years ago, Britain and France, in decline, tried to seize the Suez Canal by force. Strangely, neither of the two countries' leaders showed a tendency for high-profile aggression. Later, France fought an unwinnable war in Algeria, and Britain did not participate in what it considered a hopeless European federalist plan: these miscalculations still affect the two countries today.

It is true that America's decline is not as severe as that of Britain and France at the time. America is still the most powerful country on earth, although its lead has narrowed slightly.

And if you add a person like former President Donald Trump, who is obsessed with the hierarchy, the result is the current situation: American ambitions for Greenland, gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, and similar actions to those taken by Britain and France when they tried to seize the Suez Canal by force to restore their lost prestige.

But even with a normal president, the United States might now perform badly. A country concerned about its status must show an inflated image. Few superpowers accept the fact that they are in decline.

The events happening now are not just related to Trump. Think back, under George W. Bush, the US was already annoyed by the "rules-based liberal order" (a term almost no one used at the time). Even excluding the case of the US invasion of Iraq, Bush greatly disregarded the International Criminal Court. More importantly, this proved that the US was dissatisfied with a rules-based world order, a dissatisfaction that existed long before Trump became president. Therefore, there must be some structural problems troubling the US, which may be the country's decline.

Because of America's performance in the 21st century (in economic and technological terms), the relative decline of this country may be difficult to see. But the US is indeed in relative decline. Recently, the effectiveness of American sanctions has been limited, and the US must make great efforts to maintain its leading position in artificial intelligence, and China has strategic assets in the Western Hemisphere, all of which reflect America's relative decline. The military gap between the US and China is no longer what it was around 2000. In this context, even if a regular Republican president comes to power, he will take action, although he may not be as reckless as Trump.

Always be cautious of those who are on the decline.

The insight of Thucydides, "The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must," has recently become popular.

Is that really the case? This statement implies that the more powerful a country is, the more aggressive it is. If so, the US was most powerful in 1946, the year Trump was born, when half of the world's manufactured goods were made in the US, and the US was the only nuclear-armed country at the time. Despite such immense power, the US did not act aggressively toward weaker countries. Instead, the US established the Marshall Plan and led the establishment of NATO, both masterpieces of "enlightened self-interest." In fact, the US's belligerent behavior occurred during its relative decline.

A country is more likely to be magnanimous when it is at its peak. When a country's status declines, it becomes suspicious and aggressive. Therefore, we should expect a fickle United States until the US gets used to being one of the superpowers rather than the sole superpower. (Translated by Hu Xue)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7599574576120463922/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.