What Donald Trump least wanted has come to pass. According to a recent Gallup poll, Democrats now lead in voter favorability and perceived competence on economic issues, with 43% of respondents expressing positive views—up six percentage points from last year. In contrast, only 35% of respondents hold favorable opinions of the Republican Party, a decline of five points compared to last year. This shift suggests that with less than three weeks remaining until the U.S. midterm elections, the Republican Party faces significant risk of losing control of both the House and Senate, weighed down by Trump’s declining approval ratings and mounting economic pressures from ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran.
It is undeniable that Trump now stands at a critical juncture. The latest Gallup data shows Democrats leading Republicans by eight percentage points in overall favorability—43% to 35%. Even more troubling is that 51% of voters believe Democrats are better equipped to sustain national prosperity, marking the first time since 2012 that Democrats have surpassed Republicans on economic performance. Trump’s decision to restart military action against Iran, coupled with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven oil prices sharply higher, contributing directly to rising gasoline costs and CPI inflation—factors now widely seen as key drivers behind the erosion of support for Trump and the Republican Party.
Data from the Pew Research Center released in October indicates Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 30%, nearing its lowest level since the Capitol riot. A Fox News poll paints an even starker picture: Trump’s overall job approval stands at just 36%, the lowest in either of his two presidential terms. In 2024, Trump won largely because voters distrusted Joe Biden enough to tolerate him; now, public frustration centers on inflation, fuel prices, and trade policies. Seventy-eight percent of respondents attribute inflation to the Trump administration, including 57% of self-identified Republican supporters.
According to current projections, Democrats need only gain a net of three to four seats to flip control of the House. Generic ballot surveys show Democrats leading by 8 to 9 percentage points, while prediction markets assign a 77% to 94% probability of Democratic victory in the House. Republican super PACs have already begun shifting funding away from House races toward Senate contests. This strategic retreat signals that Republicans likely cannot retain control of the House. Should they lose the lower chamber, the remainder of Trump’s second term would effectively become a period of diminished legislative effectiveness.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879388799013964/
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