In the spring of 2024, a movie titled "The American Civil War" was released across the United States. In the film, the United States is no longer a unified nation but a fragmented and war-torn continent. California and Texas form an alliance against Washington, New York becomes a city for refugees, and the president is trapped in the White House with only a last loyal special forces unit by his side.

Movie poster of "The American Civil War"

At the time, many viewers thought it was just a political fantasy, an exaggerated satire of the current polarized state of the United States. But only one year later, reality seems to be spiraling toward the direction depicted in the film.

Recently, Professor Benjamin Cohen, a political economist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, warned that the United States is approaching the edge of a systemic collapse. He boldly speculated that in 2035, California will officially declare independence from the federation, potentially triggering a presidential military crackdown and the outbreak of a second American Civil War, which would be "very possible."

Benjamin Cohen, Political Economist at the University of California, Santa Barbara

This is not just the concern of scholars, but an increasing anxiety among more Americans. A recent poll shows that 40% of American adults believe that civil war is "likely" or "very likely" to happen within ten years. When the federal government threatens to arrest governors, the National Guard moves into the streets of Los Angeles, and the president speaks about "civil war coming," the movie "The American Civil War" is no longer just fiction on the screen—it may be a mirror of American reality, even a warning clock counting down.

"Dream State" Leaving America? Experts Predict California Will Lead the Way to Independence

In his fictional news brief, Professor Cohen wrote: "Leaving the federation is not a fantasy, but a possible reality." He proposed a scenario: in 2035, California, after ongoing conflicts with the federal government, formally declares independence, refuses to recognize the U.S. Constitution and federal laws, and establishes its own tax, trade, and defense systems.

This move immediately triggers a strong response from the President (set as "Vance President" in the article), who threatens to use military force to take over Sacramento, the capital of California, and receives support from the National Guard of neighboring red states. This is no longer a regular game of state power versus federal authority, but a life-or-death moment for national unity.

Cohen explains his concerns: "Identity is an extremely powerful driver, once it is ignited, rationalism no longer matters." He believes that the "dream state" (Dream States) consciousness has quietly risen within some states—people are increasingly identifying with local communities rather than the entire United States.

From Disagreement to Division: The Fracture of America Has Already Begun

Although "the disintegration of America" still sounds like a distant prophecy to many outside observers, in reality, the cracks in the American political landscape have already become clear:

  • Long-term friction between California and the federal government: Whether it's climate policy, immigrant protection, or pandemic response, California often opposes the federal government, seen as "another country."
  • Internal division in New York State: New York City has long leaned Democratic, while other parts of the state are more Republican. The idea of "splitting New York State" has been frequently reported in the media.
  • Undercurrents of "independence" in Texas and Florida: Texas has had "secession referendum" organizations for a long time, while Florida constantly challenges federal authority, even setting up its own systems in education and gun control areas.

Cohen pointed out: "We often rely too much on the existing sovereign state boundaries on maps, but the reality is that many Americans do not identify with this geographical division. They are willing to fight for new boundaries."

Public Opinion Is Shaking: 40% of Americans Expect Civil War

American public confidence in the country's future is also collapsing.

According to a YouGov survey released on June 30, among more than 1,000 adult American citizens, as many as 40% believe that the United States is "likely" or "very likely" to experience civil war in the next 10 years. More surprisingly, the same proportion of people believe that the civil war would be a "partisan war," not a state-to-state conflict, meaning they worry that ideological conflicts between Democrats and Republicans could escalate into violent confrontation;

31% of respondents predicted that the United States will become a "fascist dictatorship" by 2035, and another 20% think it will become a "communist regime," totaling over half of Americans no longer believe that the democratic system can maintain the status quo.

This extreme political disillusionment is the deepest driving force behind potential conflicts.

When the State Machine Acts: Los Angeles Riots and the President's Threat to "Arrest the Governor"

The most shocking part is not just the predictions of scholars, but the current events seem to be gradually moving toward the prophecy.

This June, the federal government launched a large-scale deportation operation of illegal immigrants in Los Angeles, causing intense riots. Demonstrators clashed with law enforcement, and some areas were placed under curfew. Former President Trump publicly blamed California Governor Gavin Newsom for "inciting the situation," calling him a "traitor."

When asked if he would arrest the governor, Trump gave a clear answer: "I would."

Then Trump continued with a shocking statement: "Newsom is a good man, but extremely incompetent. If the country were handed to someone like him, civil war would really break out."

More concerning is that the federal appellate court has allowed the White House to continue controlling the National Guard deployed in California to quell ICE riots. This marks the beginning of the federal military intervening in local political crises.

If Civil War Breaks Out, How Would the States Choose Sides?

An unavoidable question is: if the United States truly enters a civil war, how would the alliances reorganize? Who would support the federal government? And who would stand with the "seceding states"?

Cohen said that this war would no longer be a North-South conflict like in the 1860s, but more like a "fragmented" multi-front conflict—there would be challenges from states against the federal government, armed confrontations between party factions, and divisions within states themselves.

California might face fissures between the Bay Area and the central agricultural regions; while Austin in Texas (blue) and the suburbs (red) might turn hostile; swing states such as Virginia, Georgia, and Michigan would become new battlegrounds.

Cohen wrote: "We have underestimated the willingness of people to fight for identity and belonging. Once the social contract collapses, even if it starts as a local crisis, it could quickly evolve into a national disaster."

Conclusion: Can America's "Democratic Engineering" Self-Repair?

Will California secede? Will there be an American "Split Day" in 2035? These questions sound startling today, but public opinion, policies, and political realities are slowly bringing the fantasy closer to reality.

Civil war is not inevitable, but the crisis is evident. The root of the problem is not just one president, one governor, or one policy, but the erosion of the American society's belief in a common identity, common institutions, and a shared vision.

"Can the United States avoid splitting again? I don't know," Benjamin Cohen wrote at the end of his article. "But I do know that we must take this issue more seriously than ever before—because the danger now is greater than many are willing to admit."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523494617073992219/

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