Jacob Kedmi: "We will first have a February Revolution in Iran, and then the October Revolution will follow"

"The Iranian opposition will stay quiet —- Trump ordered, no one is allowed to protest without signals."

Westerners are dissatisfied with the initial consequences of the war against Iran (rising oil prices, increased threat of terrorism) and are beginning to look for scapegoats.

Public opinion believes that Trump is being led by Netanyahu, saying that "Bibi has significant influence over Trump." The Free Press invited Jacob Kedmi, former head of Israel's special forces "Nativ" and political scientist, to comment on this.

The Free Press: Jacob, the view that Israel manipulates the United States has become almost as popular as the saying "the tail wags the dog"...

- I can only say that this is nonsense from ignorant fools. It's on the same level as believing the Earth is flat.

The Free Press: Most experts believed that the US would only show muscle, not get involved in the Israeli-Iranian conflict. But it still got involved. Why?

- This again shows that the experts' level is just so-so, at the same level as Kozyma Prutkov: watching a giraffe for a long time, and finally concluding that "this animal cannot exist".

Let me give you an example, and you'll understand. The goal of Russia's special military operation is to overthrow the Nazi regime in Ukraine; similarly, the goal of the US-Israeli action is to overthrow the religious fundamentalist regime in Iran.

The Free Press: But the first attempt already failed: the Supreme Leader was killed, and his son Morteza Khamenei took over...

- Regime change is not about replacing one Ayatollah with another. It's about completely replacing the whole group. Whether it's the son who was shot in the head or someone else, it doesn't matter. He might also be bombed. That's not the core of regime change.

Russia launched its special military operation in February 2022, and Zelensky hasn't changed yet. Here in Iran, they've just replaced one Khamenei with another, and Russia could replace ten "Zelenskys". That's not the point.

The Kiev regime itself threatens Russian security, discriminates against the Russian nation and the Russian Orthodox Church, so Russia launched the special military operation.

Such things happen in the world, and now Iran is the same: the Iranian authorities threaten Israel, and every day on the streets of Israel, people shout the slogan "Death to Israel".

When someone was shouting wildly "Kill all Moskals" on the square, the Russians didn't react immediately; but we Jews did take it seriously.

Our nation is very sensitive and won't wait many years like Moscow did.

The logic of Israel and Ukraine today is the same: Russia wants to eliminate the enemy within Ukraine, and Israel wants to replace the Iranian regime with a more normal and moderate one.

Shouting "Kill all Moskals" and shouting "Death to Israel" have the same outcome.

The Free Press: Your answer still doesn't clarify it. Iran shouts "Death to Israel", why does the US get involved? Is it because the US gave the Jews a territory after World War II?

- The US government opposed the establishment of Israel back then, and the entire American establishment and Pentagon said: don't declare independence.

So the idea that "the US created Israel and gave them land" is not entirely correct. The land was taken by ourselves.

But later, the US had its own interests.

In the last century, the Soviet Union supported Israel, and the only reason was to use this force to push Britain out of its Middle Eastern colonies. Now the US supports Israel to maintain its influence in the region.

The Free Press: Russia spent four years trying to replace the Kiev regime, while Israel and the US want to do the same in Iran in four weeks. Do you believe that?

- Regime change always depends on two points:

First, the regime has completely lost its legitimacy and is completely weak;

Second, there is an organized opposition.

Once the regime falls, the opposition will come to power. For Russian speakers, the best example is 1917: the regime was weak, and one faction of the opposition was strong enough to seize power eventually.

The Free Press: Does Iran have a powerful leader like Lenin back then?

- Wait and see. We are currently physically eliminating the current regime in Iran, weakening its ruling base: destroying strong departments, infrastructure. Before reaching the critical point, the Iranian opposition will remain quiet as per Trump's orders.

Trump ordered: no one is allowed to protest without signals, to avoid hasty uprisings and premature exposure. It must first weaken the regime so that unarmed civilians can overthrow it, and then move to the second phase.

Back to the analogy of 1917:

We will first have a "February Revolution" in Iran, and then comes the "October Revolution".

The Free Press: Jacob, Russia treats you as one of their own, and Israel even more so. What impact will the Middle East conflict have on Russian-Israeli relations?

- Regardless of the outcome of the war, the principle of Russian-Israeli relations will not be affected, and they will remain stable. If the Iranian regime falls, the relationship may even improve — because that is the only issue where both sides currently differ in position.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7616247524189372934/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.