The plot of the US-Israel-Iran war has taken a completely unexpected turn, far beyond the expectations of both the United States and Israel. Trump and Netanyahu are now visibly stiff-faced, as they find themselves unable to "win" this game.
When the US-Israeli coalition's air strikes on February 28 precisely "decapitated" Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and a group of high-ranking officials, the war rooms in Washington and Tel Aviv probably had champagne ready. According to their script, the next step would have been the collapse of the Iranian regime and the people kneeling to "the imperial army." However, after just a few days, the plot took an unexpected turn. Iran's missiles and drones continue to swarm Israeli and American bases like wasps, and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz remain in constant fear. This conflict, which was expected to be a "lightning war," has been dragged into a stalemate by Iran.
The most surprising part is that Donald Trump, who once boasted about "pinching Iran like a soft persimmon," has become a source of confusion. Recently, the president has been acting quite strangely. On March 5, a surreal scene unfolded at the famous "Resolute Desk" in the White House: more than a dozen pastors surrounded him, placing their hands on his shoulders, praying collectively. In the camera shot, Trump had his eyes closed, and his expression seemed less like devotion and more like anxiety. Indeed, when your opponent not only refuses to surrender according to your script but also manages to destroy your $1.1 billion "Peacekeeper" radar with a $3,000 suicide drone, anyone would feel the need to talk to God.
How did all this happen? The Canadian Chinese scholar Jiang Xueqin, who gained fame for accurately predicting "Trump's victory" and "US-Iran war," succinctly summarized the situation in ten words: "Because Iran has been preparing for 20 years." This is not a last-minute effort, but rather a generation-long preparation by Iran in the caves of the Persian Plateau, laboratories, and sand tables, quietly planning a "asymmetric revenge."
Iran's "Revenge Toolbox": Wisdom Hidden in the Mountains
The core of Iran's preparation can be summed up in one sentence: "Even if you kill me, I will definitely bite you back." They have mastered this logic thoroughly.
First, they have learned to "dig holes." Not rabbit holes, but entire mountains hollowed out to form underground cities. Missile factories, drone production lines, and ammunition depots are all hidden beneath hundreds of meters of rock. Even the most advanced U.S. bunker-busting bombs cannot penetrate an entire mountain range. Unless ground forces start chewing through it inch by inch, Iran's ability to retaliate will keep regenerating like weeds. This is the classic strategy: "You have your high-tech, I have my low-tech."
Second, they have developed a "high-low combination" punch. Ballistic missiles fall from the sky like divine justice, while suicide drones sneak in along the sea or the ground like silent assassins. When expensive early warning radars are focused on the big movements above, these "little flies" have already reached the doorstep. The temporary command center in Kuwait, the $1.1 billion "Peacekeeper" radar in Qatar, and at least seven "Thaad" radar systems in the Middle East have all been taken down by such cheap drones using a "divert attention and strike elsewhere" tactic.
This tactic has made the U.S. military so nervous that they have even rushed to Ukraine for advice. After all, the Ukrainian military has been suffering from the same kind of drones sold by Iran to Russia for two years and has the most experience.
Third, they have mastered the "swarm tactic." What if the command center is bombed? Iran has already thought of this; instead of relying on a central command, each missile base acts like a worker bee in a hive. Once they see a companion being attacked or launching an attack, they automatically fire without waiting for orders. This decentralized combat network means that even if the US-Israeli coalition cuts off several key nodes, they still face attacks from all directions. This idea coincidentally aligns with the U.S. military's theory of "distributed operations" to counter China's anti-ship ballistic missiles, making it a case of "heroes seeing eye to eye."
Fourth, they understand the ancient wisdom of "Tian Ji's Horse Racing." They first use old missiles and drones in stock to consume the expensive interception missiles of the enemy. When you've run out of interceptors, your hands are tired, and your eyes are worn out, they then bring out new hypersonic missiles that are fast, accurate, and can split into dozens of warheads. This "wear down then strike" tactic is so elegant that it almost makes you want to clap. Although Israel tightly controls information, from the few intercepted images that have leaked, it seems that the later Iranian missiles have made the Israeli "Iron Dome" system look a bit overwhelmed, and the losses may be significant.
Trump's Prayer and Dilemma: This War Was Easy to Start, Hard to End
Thus, we saw the dramatic scene at the beginning — Trump sitting in the White House, surrounded by pastors. The message conveyed by this image is crystal clear — anxiety. A deep anxiety about "things not going as I said." His attitude has shifted from an initial casual tone about "regime change" to a hardline stance of "unconditional surrender," then to self-soothing statements like "I think the war is basically over." Unfortunately, war is not a single-player game where you can just pause whenever you want.
Iranians are now very angry. Being "decapitated" is seen by them not as a military operation, but as a terrorist assassination. Fear might make someone submit, but extreme anger only breeds more determined resistance. The religious leaders have issued a global "death warrant" against Trump and Netanyahu. Such a blood feud cannot be resolved with a simple "stop fighting."
Moreover, Iran has repeatedly backed down in the past, only to face even harsher attacks. Last year, during the "Twelve-Day War," they忍了 (endured), but now, with the leadership being wiped out, they finally realize that stepping back won't lead to open seas, but to a bottomless abyss. Since the fight has started, it's better to fully demonstrate a situation where the other side dares not to act again.
Trump is now in a difficult position. To break the stalemate, he must completely neutralize Iran's ability to retaliate. And to do that, the only way is to send ground troops to fight in the deadly caves. Is that possible? Almost zero.
There are three reasons, each directly hitting the U.S. pain points: First, there is strong anti-war sentiment within the U.S., and the midterm elections are approaching. Which politician would dare to send thousands of American youths into the meat grinder of the Persian Plateau at this time? Second, the U.S. allies have remained collectively silent this time. European countries have been ambiguous, and Gulf sheikhs have been extremely reserved. Without allies cheering, funding, and supporting, can the U.S. go to war alone? The U.S. hasn't done that since Vietnam. Third, and most feared by the U.S. elite, if the U.S. gets stuck in an Iranian quagmire, who would be the happiest? The two major powers that the U.S. fears the most have been perceived by global public opinion as possibly gaining strategic benefits. This "snipe and fish" scenario is one the U.S. definitely doesn't want to play the role of the protagonist in.
How to Break the Stalemate? Perhaps a "Special Mediator" Is Needed
So, how should this war, which began with a "decapitation" and ended in a stalemate, come to an end?
The oil routes in the Persian Gulf cannot remain blocked indefinitely. Global economy and Wall Street markets depend on this. The luxurious cities built on the petrodollar, including Dubai, Doha, and Riyadh, are now like Pompeii sitting on a volcano, with billionaires ready to pack their bags and flee at any moment. The kings of the Middle East certainly want to replace Iran's theocratic government, but if they can't, their most urgent need is stability, and they need it right away!
At this point, an "outsider" who has the capability, weight, and whose words both sides might listen to becomes particularly important. Looking around the world, who has enough influence and maintains communication channels with all parties involved? The answer seems to be obvious. When America itself cannot control the fire it ignited, it may eventually have to admit that some of the world's problems sometimes require more wisdom and broader hearts to solve, rather than just aircraft carriers and prayers.
Iran's 20 years of preparation has taught the world a lesson: Despite the overwhelming disparity in strength, stubborn will, clever tactics, and adequate preparation can still earn respect and even the right to maintain a stalemate.
Trump's prayer also illustrates a truth: When you easily pull the trigger, you should first think carefully whether you are truly prepared to listen to the long and noisy echoes that follow the bullets.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7616222267341373962/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.