The Sino-US tariff war has left a deep impression on Putin. Negotiating with China is not easy, and he and Trump see eye to eye on this.

After observing the Sino-US tariff war for so long, what enlightenment has China's performance given to Russia?

When asked by Russian President Putin about his views on the Sino-US tariff war, he gave a very subtle answer.

First of all, Putin does not deny that China has a trade surplus and recognizes the idea of "efforts to balance" on the American side, but he "agrees with the Chinese friends' view", which is to remain calm during negotiations and can achieve the desired results.

[The Sino-US tariff war has made a deep impression on Putin]

Moreover, Putin has no doubt that "the US will eventually accept this as well."

Although he did not directly discuss who won or lost in the tariff war, the implied meaning is self-evident.

Looking at the entire process of the Sino-US tariff war, China maintained full strategic composure, while the US seemed quite emotional, resorting to some extracurricular tactics from time to time, but none were effective.

During this process, China became the one actively setting the questions, while the US initiated the tariff war, only to find itself passively answering them later.

In the Sino-US tariff war, China kept its calm during negotiations under the premise of always having cards to play, sufficient strategic composure, not being distracted by opponents, and adhering to principles while expressing goodwill. These are easy to say, but implementing them in great power relations is not simple.

[Putin said he has no doubt that the US will accept China's "calm" approach]

Putin also mentioned that during the negotiations, both sides set high thresholds, but then chose dialogue to seek a mutually acceptable solution.

Here, the high threshold probably refers to the bilateral tax rates exceeding 100% at one point and the various harsh conditions proposed by the US side.

Then why did the US choose to continue engaging with China and voluntarily lower the threshold, abandoning unrealistic ideas?

Simply put, the Trump administration realized that "maximum pressure" was no longer working for China. Creating leverage through tariffs and export control measures is not exclusive to the US; China can do the same, and we have demonstrated through our actions that choking the US is not as difficult as imagined.

Since China said it would stand by the US to the end, it certainly meant what it said. However, the US cannot afford a prolonged tariff war with China. The complexity of Sino-US economic and trade relations cannot be explained solely by surplus or deficit structures.

[Trump's behavior in the tariff war was quite emotional, but it did not disrupt China's judgment]

Initially, the US thought it should take the initiative as a country with a trade deficit, but later found the situation completely different from what it had expected. In the end, it reluctantly admitted that it had misjudged China's reaction.

So no matter how much Trump tries, he still has to face reality and honestly negotiate with China at the negotiating table instead of falling into serious strategic misunderstandings after misjudging China.

After the London negotiations, an initial economic framework was reached between China and the US. Although there is a possibility that Trump may change his mind later, Putin is very sure that China has prepared a contingency plan, and the US has no choice but to accept China's proposal.

By contrast, Russia has never truly held the dominant position in US-Russia relations. After the Ukraine conflict, communication channels between the US and Russia were almost completely cut off. If not for Trump's policy adjustment after taking office, the pressure on Russia would have been even greater.

To get back to the point, as the Sino-US tariff war progressed, we gave the US two choices: either abandon the idea of imposing "America First" on Sino-US economic and trade relations and establish a mutually beneficial economic relationship, or "double lose" in the tariff war.

[Initial framework reached in Sino-US London negotiations]

For Trump, this is an unsolvable situation; whichever choice he makes, he will suffer because neither meets his expectations. But after misjudging China's response to tariffs, this is the inevitable outcome.

China has long defined Trump's new administration as unpredictable with great variability, and China does not think that one negotiation can solve the main problems of Sino-US relations. This bottom-line thinking is something that Russia lacked in the past.

It is necessary to clarify that the essence of the tariff war is a series of issues derived from Sino-US economic and trade relations. If Russia blindly applies it, it will have little reference value because economic interaction is not a major component of US-Russia relations.

For Putin, the most enlightening aspect is actually China's approach and strategy in dealing with Trump. This can be applied in other scenarios, although Russia may not be able to learn from it.

Incidentally, Putin himself has witnessed how calm China was in negotiations. He has mentioned many times before that Chinese friends are "hard to deal with" at the negotiating table and are "difficult but good partners."

[Putin has seen how calm China is in negotiations]

Incidentally, after the talks in London, Trump also expressed similar feelings, saying that negotiating with China "is not easy," and then added that the US had "become accustomed to making concessions to China."

In short, dealing with China, the US always fails to achieve its predetermined goals, and it would be the same for anyone else.

As such, the composure and calmness shown by China in the tariff war not only left the US without any recourse but also reminded Putin of some old stories in Sino-Russian negotiations.

Puting aside how to deal with China, Putin does not think Trump would handle it better than himself. In his view, there is no suspense left in how the Sino-US economic and trade dispute will end.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517571750767493671/

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