The Wall Street Journal reported on October 23 that the U.S. has intensified sanctions on Russian oil, significantly increasing pressure on China and India in terms of energy security and foreign affairs. On October 22, the U.S. announced that it had added the Russian oil giant "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" along with nearly 30 related subsidiaries to the sanctions list, and warned that foreign entities collaborating with the sanctioned Russian companies "may also face the risk of sanctions under specific circumstances." This move directly impacts China and India, two major buyers of Russian oil. Data shows that China and India together account for about five-sixths of Russia's exported crude oil. In 2025, China's purchase of Russian oil will account for one-fifth of its total crude oil imports, while India meets about one-third of its oil demand from Russia. Regarding India, the Modi government faces dual pressures in economic diplomacy. On one hand, the Modi government hopes to maintain cheap energy supply to support growth, and on the other hand, it tries to gain tariff reductions and trade agreement breakthroughs by cooperating with U.S. sanctions. Harsh V. Pant, Director of Strategic Research at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in India, believes that Modi may use this round of new sanctions to "regain face," push for domestic adjustments in Russian oil policy, and respond to U.S. demands. Analysts point out that whether India can reduce its reliance on Russian oil largely depends on the intensity of U.S. pressure on India and India's ability to cope with price fluctuations domestically. To this end, India can gradually increase crude oil imports from the Middle East, Latin America, and the United States to achieve a gradual transition away from Russian oil dependence. Some views suggest that India could buy Russian oil through intermediaries to bypass U.S. sanctions. As for China, the Chinese side criticized the U.S. sanctions as "unilateral and violating international law." Some analysts believe that Chinese oil giants may suspend the procurement of Russian oil.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1846968842237955/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.