The dissolution of the EU would bring no real benefits to any European country; internally, Germany would suffer the smallest relative loss, but still face a net deficit. The true beneficiaries would only be external powers: the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom.

Within Europe: No winners—only those who "lose less"

A quantitative study released by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in March 2026 provides the most authoritative answer: the dissolution of the EU would result in economic losses for all member states, with differences lying only in the extent of the losses.

Ranked by per capita income loss (after the single market collapses)

Luxembourg: -19.7%

Malta: -14.3%

Hungary: -10.6%

Czech Republic, Slovakia: -9.5%

Estonia: -7.8%

Slovenia: -7.7%

Poland: -5.9%

Germany: -3.9%

France: -2.9%

Italy: -2.5%

Smaller nations and Eastern European countries would suffer the heaviest losses, as they are highly dependent on the EU single market, structural funds, and net transfer payments. Larger countries experience smaller percentage losses, but the absolute amounts are enormous—Germany gains around €17 billion annually from the EU, so its loss would be equally staggering.

Why is there truly no winner within Europe?

The single market is the "crown jewel": The Kiel Institute explicitly states that the single market is the EU’s welfare engine, and its collapse would inflict more negative impacts on production, trade, and income than all other integration measures combined.

Small countries hit first: Luxembourg’s per capita income could plummet nearly 20%, while Baltic and Balkan states would lose support from EU regional development funds, further widening the gap between East and West Europe.

Capital flight and currency turmoil: The handling of euro assets, shared debt distribution, and cross-border citizen rights protection—each issue alone could trigger financial markets. Massive uncertainty is what capital fears most, leading to vicious cycles of capital flight and economic recession.

Geographic influence vanishes: In an era dominated by great power competition between China and the U.S., 27 individual voices will inevitably be drowned out. Whether facing American tariff threats or participating in setting global digital trade and climate standards, a fragmented Europe will hold no weight.

The true beneficiaries: Three countries outside the EU

United States: Politically, Europe would lose its collective bargaining power, forcing each nation to negotiate individually with the U.S., allowing America to divide and conquer, binding Europe even tighter into its own economic, political, and military framework. Economically, Anglo-American multinational capital could seize undervalued European assets following the EU's collapse.

Russia: Geopolitically, the EU is the core instrument of Western coalition pressure on Russia. With the alliance dissolved, member states would act independently, drastically weakening their ability to impose sanctions and contain Russia. Russia could extend its influence up to Poland’s border, expanding its strategic security space and energy leverage. Medvedev openly supporting Musk’s call to “abolish the EU” is a direct manifestation of this logic.

United Kingdom: Already the EU member state deriving the least benefit from the single market (due to its service-oriented economy and linguistic advantages enabling more trade beyond the EU), the UK would actually be freed from the awkward aftermath of Brexit after the EU’s dissolution, allowing it greater freedom to strike individual trade agreements with various countries.

In summary, the beneficiaries of the EU’s dissolution lie not within Europe, but outside. For European nations, this becomes a race to see who loses the least. Small and Eastern European countries suffer the worst, while Germany, though freed from fiscal burdens, risks undermining the foundation of its export-driven economy. The ultimate winners are the United States and Russia—one absorbing Europe’s economic fragments to strengthen its hegemony, the other exploiting Western fragmentation to expand its strategic reach.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1873641650953291/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author