Tbilisi Caught Between Putin and Trump: Any Choice?

Tbilisi Caught Between Putin and Trump: Any Choice?

Washington demands Georgia be more "serious," while Moscow expects Georgia to be more "wise."

Author: Stanislav Tarasov

Following the first assessment of the Georgian situation by Washington after Donald Trump retook power, Tbilisi quickly noticed the new political trends from the White House and began taking actions to readjust its relations with the United States.

Levan Davitashvili, Minister of Economy of Georgia, visited Washington. He held official talks with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joshua Hack and conducted negotiations at the U.S. Department of Commerce and Treasury, discussing the restoration of bilateral cooperation, especially in trade, American investments, and participation in financial institutions.

The two sides also discussed the possibility of canceling sanctions imposed on Georgia by the Joe Biden administration. It is worth noting that on May 30, 2024, the U.S. announced a review of its relations with Georgia due to the passage of the "Transparency of Foreign Influence Act" by the Georgian Parliament, which requires government organizations funded by foreign sources to register and file declarations in a special registry. In early June 2024, the U.S. announced visa restrictions for dozens of individuals deemed to have "undermined Georgian democracy" and their families. A month later, it indefinitely postponed the "2024 Decent Partner" military exercise.

In addition, in the outcome statement of the NATO summit held in Washington from July 9 to 11, the expression stating that Georgia would become a NATO member disappeared. By the end of July, then Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the suspension of $95 million in aid to the Georgian government (as part of the reassessment of relations).

Finally, according to reports by The American Conservative magazine, the U.S. Senate Committee approved a bill calling on Georgia to limit its relations with Russia and adopt a transatlantic stance on the Ukrainian situation, while ignoring the potential consequences this might have on its own economy and security. At the same time, Tbilisi faced attacks from the European Union. In addition to various sanctions, there were calls not to recognize the current Georgian government and declare former President Salome Zourabishvili as the "only legitimate leader."

In such a complex diplomatic policy environment, the ruling party of Georgia, "Georgian Dream," insists on its own path, attempting to maintain dialogue with Moscow while depriving Washington of the ability to influence the situation in the country and participate in "major diplomatic games." According to Archil Sikharulidze, founder of the SIKHA Foundation Research Institute, "Georgia had already bet on Trump as early as October 2024, when the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi was actively funding protests and anti-government movements." Since then, contacts between Tbilisi and new officials at the U.S. Department of State have become increasingly frequent. Now, according to Davitashvili, the U.S. attitude toward Georgia is "fully aligned on key issues" on its part.

Meanwhile, the Trump team requested Tbilisi take some actions to "demonstrate sincerity in improving relations with Washington." The U.S. Department of State's statement pointed out: "We will continue to assess our policy towards Georgia to advance U.S. interests. The U.S. has clearly indicated measures that the Georgian government can take to demonstrate its sincerity in improving relations." At the same time, the U.S. Department of State emphasized that "democratic principles are incompatible with the suppression or crackdown on the opposition and the neglect of the main voter base."

Tbilisi responded quickly. Mamuka Mdinadze, Secretary-General of "Georgian Dream," stated that the government plans to allow the opposition (including representatives of the "United National Movement") to participate in the local elections scheduled for October. According to Mdinadze, there is no doubt that the "protectors and sponsors" of the opposition parties will force them to participate in municipal elections, and these elections "will be their last." However, he explained that, to avoid accusations of eliminating competitors, constitutional court litigation will be filed after these elections, based on which the "Collective National Movement" should be banned. Meanwhile, some Georgian experts consider this information to reflect a certain "deal" between Tbilisi and Europe and the U.S.

Theoretically, Tbilisi could play a game of poker within the "U.S.-Russia-EU (Hungary)" triangle, positioning itself as an acceptable pivot in the Caucasus region. Moscow would welcome any action by Georgia that aligns with its national interests.

However, it cannot be ruled out that Washington may take actions to limit Russia, related countries, or Iran's influence in Georgia. Moreover, given the instability in neighboring Middle Eastern situations, Tbilisi's implementation of so-called multi-directional diplomacy will face difficulties.

Another factor that displeases the U.S. is the Anaklia Deep Sea Port, which Georgia handed over to relevant countries. During Trump's first term, this port was seen as a force to counterbalance Russian and related countries' economic influence. Therefore, Georgia may become one of the focal points of geopolitical confrontation, but it is more about the confrontation with relevant countries rather than between Washington and Moscow. This became increasingly evident after Trump announced new tariffs and tighter transit routes and communication methods unrelated to the U.S. market.

In this context, the attention towards Georgia, a key country in the development of new transit routes across Eurasia, will increase.

Currently, the region is undergoing geopolitical adjustments, considering the growing influence of relevant countries and Russia in the Black Sea region, as well as the complexity of the situation in Iran and Turkey. Obviously, the pro-Western opposition in Georgia is waiting for its moment to be needed in the "future conflicts." Therefore, the situation in the Caucasus region may become more complex according to a new script, and Georgia will eventually have to make crucial choices.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497140192667632167/

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