[Military and Weapons Section] Author: Tianlang
According to foreign media reports, the Indonesian government has suddenly suspended a $8.1 billion procurement contract for 42 French Rafale fighter jets. Foreign media generally believe that this move is related to the air combat between India and Pakistan in early May. In that sudden high-intensity aerial confrontation, France's proud Rafale fighter jets failed to achieve any results, and were even shot down by several aircraft equipped with China-exported J-10CE fighters armed with PL-15E air-to-air missiles of Pakistan Air Force. This battle not only caused the image of Dassault Company to suffer losses, but also further pushed the already precarious Russian Sukhoi fighters into a deeper abyss. Indonesia's suspension order not only means the temporary halt of the execution of a contract, but may also foreshadow a major reshuffle in the international fighter jet market.
▲Related report on Indonesia's suspension of Rafale procurement contract
First of all, it should be clear that this Indo-Pakistani air combat was not a traditional tactical engagement. According to public information, Pakistan dispatched a high-performance fleet including J-10CE and JF-17 "FC-1" Block III fighters, using PL-15E and other medium to long-range missiles to attack a mixed formation of 14 Indian fighters including "Rafale", Su-30MKI, and MiG-29. Finally, the Pakistani side claimed to have shot down five Indian aircraft including three "Rafales", without any loss. Although both India and France remained silent on this, photos of the wreckage of the "Rafale" and cross-checking from multiple independent channels made this result highly credible. For Indonesian citizens, this was undoubtedly a preview of "spending a lot of money to buy failure".
More damaging was the "spillover effect" of this air combat in the international market. Prior to this, Indonesia signed a contract for the purchase of 42 "Rafale" fighter jets due to political and military considerations, with each jet priced at nearly $200 million. However, after the war, public opinion in Indonesia overwhelmingly questioned this decision, with social media even calling for the government to switch to purchasing China's J-10C. Some Indonesian netizens frankly said: when I learned that cheaper aircraft could shoot down the "Rafale", I felt regret. This trend of public opinion directly pointed to the awkward situation of "Rafale" being expensive but inefficient.
▲Indonesian netizens said: We should buy some J-10 fighters.
In fact, the performance displayed by the J-10C in this conflict was not just "cheap and practical", but also "one generation ahead". As the main export model of China's fourth-generation semi-fighter, the J-10C adopts advanced active electronically scanned array radar (AESA), digital avionics systems, and stealth optimization design, combined with new-generation medium to long-range missiles such as PL-15E, forming a complete informatized aerial combat strike system. From the perspective of technical confrontation, this combination completely suppressed the mid-range dogfight mode and electronic warfare advantages relied upon by the "Rafale".
And Russia is truly the "loser among losers". In this conflict, India's Su-30MKI and MiG-29 equipped by the Indian Air Force were also "unscathed" shot down, breaking the long-standing myth that "Russian heavy fighters have an air combat advantage". Especially the Su-30MKI, which was equipped with thrust vectoring engines and multifunctional radars, had been highly anticipated, but it had no defense against the multi-target lock-on and beyond visual range strike capabilities of the J-10C. What was more fatal was that the J-10C itself was a lightweight fighter, which meant that Russia's originally advantageous low price and simple maintenance were now losing their edge in the "low price" card.
▲Su-35 heavy fighter is also one of Russia's main products in recent years' arms trade.
For developing countries like Indonesia, fighter jet procurement is not only a military investment, but also a strategic decision in politics and economy. In terms of cost-effectiveness, the unit price of the J-10C is less than one-third of the "Rafale", while its battlefield performance far exceeds the latter. Under the current limited budget and increasing combat readiness pressure, Chinese fighter jets clearly provide a more cost-effective solution.
The suspension of the Rafale order by Indonesia may just be the beginning. In the Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and even Latin America, where countries use Russian or older American jets, once the transformation mindset takes shape, the international market space for China's J-10C, J-16, J-35 and other fighter jets will greatly expand. Especially for those countries with Su-27/30 series fighters, the accompanying upgrades, replacements, and ammunition systems are likely to lean towards China, forming a "Chinese closed loop" from aircraft to radar, ammunition, and avionics systems. In fact, China has already demonstrated its ability to adapt PL-12AE/15E missiles and domestic radar systems to Russian aircraft, which will severely squeeze Russia's survival space in the mid to low-end arms trade market.
▲Imagined picture of the "Rafale" being shot down.
It must be pointed out that the fundamental problem of France and Russia is not that their weapons are "too bad", but the lack of flexible technical services, low-cost options, and systemic support capabilities. By contrast, China's defense industry can not only provide complete aircraft, but also assist customers in local maintenance, training, and tactical adaptation, making this "full-process support" something that traditional arms powers find hard to match.
The Indo-Pakistani air combat was like a touchstone, not only verifying the real combat effectiveness of various types of aircraft, but also prompting the international arms procurement market to reassess "who is truly a reliable supplier". The Rafale fighter jet of France may continue to maintain its mid-to-high-end market position within the NATO system, but in developing country markets where price is more sensitive and results are more critical, its myth may have already collapsed. And Russia must be careful, not only losing clients, but also possibly having its technological territory gradually eroded by China. As for China - the J-10C may not only shoot down a Rafale, but also create a new pattern in the global fighter jet market.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506459569418207744/
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