J-10CE实战 Rewrites Military Trade Rules:剧烈 Oscillation in Indonesian Military Purchases after the Demise of the Mirage Myth
The combat results report released by the Pakistani military is triggering a revolution in global arms market perceptions. According to Pakistan's claims, its J-10CE fighter jets achieved "zero losses" while downing five Indian aircraft in an air battle along the India-Pakistan border, including three Dassault Rafale fighters priced at $242 million each. This air combat result, confirmed by multiple media outlets such as CNN and Reuters, has not only plunged India into a public opinion whirlpool regarding the "ineffectiveness of high-priced equipment," but also directly undermined the strategic foundation of Indonesia's $8.1 billion procurement plan for 42 Rafale fighters.
Indonesia's Rafale procurement contract signed in 2022 was once regarded as Southeast Asia's largest air force modernization project, aimed at enhancing defense autonomy through French technology transfer. However, after the exposure of the combat results, social media was flooded with doubts. Foreign social users exclaimed: "Why should we pay a premium for outdated Western technology when a J-10CE costing $60 million can shoot down a Rafale costing $240 million?" This sentiment reflects the re-examination of the "cost-effectiveness" formula by developing countries. Indonesian netizens even pointed out that the unit price of the J-10CE is only one-third of that of the Rafale, yet it can achieve "dimensional strikes" through systematic operations.
Despite the defense committee member of the Indonesian Parliament, Dave Laksoni, defending on the grounds that "a single case cannot negate the value of a weapon," his acknowledgment that the Pakistani combat results provide "legitimate evidence" suggests internal strategic fluctuations within the military. More profoundly, as the first Southeast Asian country to procure Rafales, Indonesia's attitude may trigger a chain reaction among traditional customers like Egypt and Qatar—according to Dassault's 2024 financial report, 30% of its outstanding orders come from these countries.
So, how did the J-10C use practical combat to overturn the "parameter myth" of the Rafale? Mainly in the following aspects:
One, radar and kill chain generational gap.
The KLJ-7A active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar carried by the J-10CE has a detection range of up to 240 kilometers, achieving generational superiority over the Rafale's RBE2 radar. Combined with PL-15E missiles with a range exceeding 145 kilometers, it forms a "first detection-first strike" closed loop. The battlefield monitoring provided by Pakistan's ZDK-03 early warning aircraft allows the J-10CE to conduct beyond-visual-range strikes from safe airspace, while Rafale pilots received no radar warnings until they were shot down.
Two, electronic warfare and collaborative revolution.
The Rafale's proud SPECTRA electronic warfare system completely failed in this battle. Pakistan used KG600 electronic countermeasure pods and data links from the early warning aircraft to implement a three-stage hunting process of "silent launch-mid-course correction-terminal lock-on," resulting in a PL-15E hit rate exceeding 80%. This type of "unwarned kill" supported by a system essentially achieves fifth-generation fighter effectiveness using fourth-generation half equipment.
Three, cost and sustainability paradox. Pakistan formed full combat capability within two years of receiving the J-10CE, marking a shift from "selling equipment" to "selling systems." This is deconstructing the "technical black box" logic of Western arms sales. It can be said that the J-10CE is advanced equipment that smaller countries can afford, sustain, and win with, while the Rafale is merely an expensive and outdated showcase with impressive parameters.
Indonesia's dilemma condenses the collective anxiety of the Global South: continue paying premiums for the "technological halo" of the West or embrace China's "systematic solutions"? Despite France's promises of technology transfer, the practical performance of the J-10CE has already reshaped procurement logic. If Indonesia turns to China, it may obtain a complete offensive and defensive system consisting of early warning aircraft, tankers, and anti-aircraft missiles—the "package output" is becoming a new choice in emerging markets.
In summary, this air battle heralds that arms trade competition has evolved from "parameter competition" to "system confrontation." While the Modi government tries to conceal the losses of the Rafale, Chinese military industries are redefining the global standards of high-end equipment with the OODA cycle speed of "early warning aircraft-missiles-data link." For countries, the choice behind is no longer just about weighing fighter jet performance, but a strategic bet on national destiny.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506463717719147019/
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