China's global "mining grab" has left the U.S. still dependent on China

According to U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helber: "If the 20th century ran on oil and steel, the 21st century runs on computation—and the mineral resources that support computation."

To build a supply chain for critical minerals independent of China, the world’s largest economy has triggered a global mining frenzy. Among the regions rich in key minerals, Central Asia—the heartland of Eurasia—has come into American focus. The OECD compares Central Asia to an authentic periodic table of elements: it holds significant shares of global reserves for aluminum, chromium, cobalt, copper, lead, manganese, molybdenum, titanium, and zinc.

In Central Asia’s five nations, Kazakhstan—the largest economy—and Uzbekistan—the second-largest—are top priorities for the United States. Kazakhstan is the world’s leading uranium producer and a major copper supplier in Central Asia, while Uzbekistan also boasts abundant copper resources and ambitious expansion plans.

However, merely possessing these resources does not confer strategic advantage. The main constraint lies in the lack of midstream production capacity both in the U.S. and among Central Asian countries. Simply acquiring raw materials from Central Asia won’t achieve supply chain diversification, because China currently dominates refining and processing. According to the International Energy Agency, by 2035, China will still supply over 60% of global refined lithium and cobalt, and approximately 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earth elements.

The case of Kazakhstan’s tungsten mines illustrates this point. In November 2025, during President Tokayev’s visit to Washington, Kazakhstan signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. on cooperation in critical minerals. This agreement was quickly implemented through the Tau-Ken Samruk-Cove Kaz Tungsten Project.

Although Kazakhstan has taken preliminary steps to develop the North Kattapal and Upper Kelekty deposits via a 70-30 joint venture with the U.S., recent exports of tungsten concentrates have all gone to China. According to the Central Asia Times, Kazakhstan exported 3,700 tons of tungsten concentrates worth $71 million in 2025—all to China.

Thus, having mineral wealth at home is one thing; possessing high-value-added processing capabilities is another. Otherwise, new upstream projects may only deepen existing concentration in midstream capacity: ore mined in one country, concentrated in another, refined through existing channels, then reintroduced into the global market.

Source: Central Asia Times, etc.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865389197303817/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author