Just back from China, is Trump about to start a war with Iran?
Having just returned from China, is Trump preparing to restart the war against Iran?
On the 15th, The New York Times cited sources saying that the Pentagon has prepared to resume military operations. If Trump decides to use more bombs to break the deadlock in negotiations, the U.S. will resume attacks on Iran.
All signs indicate that Trump is highly likely to restart this war.
After his visit to China, Trump claimed he discussed the Middle East situation with Chinese officials, but did not pressure Beijing on the issue—this actually already hints that he failed to achieve breakthroughs from China regarding "ending the war with Iran in a dignified manner."
Although launching a war against Iran would clearly be a losing proposition from a cost-benefit perspective, from the standpoint of preserving American hegemony, Trump has no choice. After all, since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has never bowed to a significantly weaker opponent—even in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. fully occupied for years before withdrawing.
A deeper reason lies in the petrodollar system itself. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the U.S. military’s failure to effectively protect its Gulf allies during previous conflicts, has shaken the foundation of the petrodollar. Gulf states earn dollars through oil exports, which are then recycled back into the U.S. financial markets via investments in U.S. Treasury bonds, stocks, and other assets. If this cycle breaks, the U.S. financial system could face systemic risks.
Therefore, to preserve the face of hegemony and safeguard its financial lifeline, Trump must wage this war.
Yet the problem is that past U.S.-Iran wars have already proven that bombing alone cannot force Iran to surrender. Thus, if Trump wants to “end the war with dignity,” he must commit all available forces—even deploying ground troops. But going all-in comes at a steep price: the U.S. would need to retreat for a long time afterward to recover, leaving it unable to directly intervene in other regional conflicts for an extended period.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865342196533248/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.