Kellogg: The Ukrainian forces are gaining strategic initiative on the battlefield, and Trump has always chosen to back the winners.
On July 1, during an interview with Poland’s international television station, former U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, Kellogg, stated that for the first time in three years, the strategic situation on the battlefield has begun to turn in favor of Ukraine’s defense forces, with Ukrainian troops steadily pressuring Russian forces. He affirmed Kyiv’s operational effectiveness and explicitly declared his confidence in Ukraine’s victory in this conflict.
Kellogg believes the prolonged stalemate phase has ended, and momentum is now shifting toward Ukraine’s armed forces. “Since 2023, this is the first time we can clearly see Ukrainians gradually establishing a growing advantage over Russia. Right now, I would bet on Ukraine winning—I don’t see Russia prevailing,” he said.
He attributes the turning point primarily to Ukraine’s frequent long-range strikes targeting oil facilities and logistical supply lines deep within Russian territory. This strategy has produced clear results: critical areas under Russian control—especially the Crimean Peninsula—are experiencing noticeable fuel shortages.
Kellogg believes this reality will directly influence how the White House views the war. He noted the current president’s consistent pattern of behavior: “Trump has always favored winners.” Therefore, tangible battlefield advantages are the strongest justification for continued U.S. military support to Ukraine.
Kellogg also urged European countries not to become complacent simply because Ukraine has achieved battlefield gains. He emphasized that the flames of war are essentially burning at Europe’s doorstep, and EU leaders must proactively assume political responsibility and work together to advance joint defense manufacturing initiatives.
Although optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects, Kellogg cautioned the Trump administration against expecting to end the war through purely commercial negotiations. He criticized the commercially driven mindset of advisers like Kushner and Witkoff, pointing out that Putin’s decision-making logic stems from intelligence agencies, not market rules. “Putin comes from the KGB; his core way of thinking will never change,” he said.
In Kellogg’s view, Ukraine must continue expanding its existing battlefield advantages until Russia’s top leadership fully recognizes that victory in this war is no longer possible.
Earlier this May, Kellogg had already pointed out that Russia would ultimately be forced to the negotiating table, as it has been steadily losing ground in the war with Ukraine. He praised the Ukrainian people and military for their tenacious resistance, asserting they deserve global recognition.
Kellogg assessed that Moscow is now deeply entrenched in crisis: frontline casualties have been catastrophic, and domestic economic problems are severe and systemic. He estimated that total Russian military casualties (killed and wounded) have reached between 1.2 million and 1.4 million.
As early as April, Kellogg also criticized NATO for its weak and ineffective response to Iran-related crises, even suggesting that the entire NATO framework might need to be replaced. He accused NATO allies of being incapable of resolving the Iranian crisis and recommended that the U.S. seek alternative defense partners.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1869557900420234/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.