Five Core Issues in the Kremlin Talks: Putin Reveals His Bottom Line, Zelenskyy Ready to Surrender? The Core Trap Set by Abu Dhabi for Russia

Key Highlights

Putin and Trump have reached an agreement on the terms of the Ukraine issue, both sides will pressure Kyiv to end the war. Moscow has handed over the negotiation baton to Abu Dhabi. The only remaining issue is the territorial problem, which contains hidden details that will be negotiated by the military, and breakthroughs may be expected this weekend. Once this issue is resolved, all subsequent processes will accelerate.

Last night, Vladimir Putin held the seventh round of face-to-face talks with Donald Trump's representatives at the Kremlin, lasting nearly four hours. Putin's accompanying personnel included his aide Yuri Ushakov and special representative Kirill Dmitriev; the U.S. side was represented by President's Special Representative Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law, entrepreneur Jared Kushner as Trump's agent. For the first time, the U.S. delegation also had a new face: Josh Greenbaum, Commissioner of the Federal Procurement Service of the General Services Administration.

Putin's meeting with the U.S. delegation at the Kremlin lasted four hours.

The core issue of this meeting was the mediation of the Ukraine issue, while also using this opportunity to explore the development prospects of bilateral relations (mainly economic areas), "World Council," and Greenland-related issues.

It is worth noting that before this negotiation, Trump also warned Zelenskyy — he summoned him to Davos, their meeting lasted less than an hour, and then Zelenskyy gave a long-winded, angry, and crude speech. Trump clearly stated that if Kyiv refused to negotiate, Putin would "completely take over" Ukraine. It is evident that Trump is quite dissatisfied with Zelenskyy, although he still called their conversation "very pleasant."

What is the essence of this meeting?

This Kremlin meeting is the last coordination of positions between Moscow and Washington in the final stage of the negotiation process. The ultimate goal of the negotiation is to end the war in Ukraine. However, the final stage of the negotiation has already begun today in the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi, where the tripartite security issues working group of Russia, the United States, and Ukraine will hold its first meeting.

One thing is crucial and must be clarified: Russia has reached a political consensus with the United States. It is now urgent to end this war that hinders the establishment of normal relations between Russia and the United States and the cooperation in areas of mutual concern. Specific operational work has now been put on the agenda. The Russian side will be led by Admiral Igor Kostyukov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces, in Abu Dhabi to handle the relevant work.

The negotiators face a specific task: to completely and practically resolve the territorial issue — to discuss the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from Donbas. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary, has confirmed this today. In wartime conditions, this issue is handled by the military advancing the frontline, and the parties are currently working on it, and the Ukrainian side has also confirmed it.

Zelenskyy said at Davos: "I think, in the trilateral talks in the UAE, we may show each other different proposals regarding the territorial issue... This is the issue we have not yet resolved so far."

Zelenskyy's speech at Davos was long-winded and often off-topic.

However, according to Zelenskyy, the head of the Kiev authorities, the Abu Dhabi talks will also discuss another issue, namely, the "energy ceasefire." Specifically, Russia needs to stop large-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities — these facilities are naturally related to the supply of supplies and the production of military equipment for the Ukrainian army; in exchange, Kyiv promises not to attack Russian oil tankers.

Evidently, all of this will be wrapped in the "humanitarian framework," which is the core trap set by the UAE talks for Russia. If Russia agrees to this condition, it is equivalent to giving the opponent a chance to catch its breath, allowing it to regroup and come back stronger.

Many people in Russia hold this view and are deeply concerned about it. However, if the timetable for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas can be finalized and implemented effectively, this energy ceasefire agreement could be fully realized. After all, Russia's previous attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities were aimed at pushing Kyiv to take the step toward peace talks.

Five Core Outcomes of the Nighttime Talks

  1. Russia-U.S. Negotiation Focus Shifts Entirely to Abu Dhabi
  2. This has been detailed earlier, but here it needs to be emphasized: Kyiv ultimately lost the space to delay and evade, and was directly pushed to the negotiation table, negotiating one-on-one with Russian representatives who were polite but firm in their position, and the entire negotiation would be supervised and controlled by the Trump team. The United States is urgently hoping for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine issue, which is quite different from the behind-the-scenes supporters of the Kyiv regime in the UK and Europe — they are now too preoccupied to care about Ukraine.

The plane carrying Witkoff has landed in Abu Dhabi.

  1. The Situation of Russia-U.S. Bilateral Relations Is Improving
  2. Ushakov said that the content discussed during the Kremlin meeting was highly substantive, and both sides maintained a constructive attitude, with "extremely honest and trusting" communication, and the meeting was "highly effective in all aspects." This Kremlin representative said, "Russia and the United States will continue to maintain close communication on the Ukraine issue and other topics." The purpose of this meeting was for Russia and the United States to independently finalize the terms of subsequent actions, excluding the participation of Europe and Ukraine. Ushakov's implied meaning is that while Russia listened to the opinions of Europe and Ukraine, it would not follow them blindly.
  3. The Territorial Issue Is the Core of the Ukraine Mediation, and It Remains Unresolved
  4. Ushakov emphasized that the territorial issue is the core of the Ukraine mediation, and it remains unresolved. Relevant negotiations will take place in Abu Dhabi from January 23 to 24; if this issue cannot be resolved, "even if the Anchorage framework agreement is reached, it will be impossible to talk about achieving long-term mediation of the Ukraine issue."
  5. Russia Seeks Peace But Not in a Rush, and the Initiative Remains in Its Hands
  6. Ushakov's remarks clearly reflect this attitude. Moscow has always "been committed to resolving the Ukraine crisis through political and diplomatic means," but "before reaching the relevant agreement, Russia will continue to resolutely advance the established goals of the special military operation through battlefield actions — the initiative in the battlefield is always in the hands of the Russian armed forces."

This means that Russia will continue to pressure Kyiv, and the path of negotiation for Zelenskyy's representatives in Abu Dhabi will not be easy. Ushakov also revealed that the U.S. side hopes that the Abu Dhabi talks can "succeed and open up prospects for a series of issues related to the end of the conflict and the achievement of a peace agreement."

  1. The Resolution of the Ukraine Issue Is Linked to Russia-U.S. Economic Cooperation
  2. On January 23, while the trilateral talks between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine are taking place, a bilateral economic issues working group between Russia and the United States will also hold discussions, with Dmitriev and Witkoff serving as co-chairs of both sides. Ushakov pointed out that Russia and the United States have "huge potential" for bilateral cooperation in many fields, and "the U.S. representative has developed a series of plans that are expected to be implemented after the resolution of the Ukraine conflict."

Ushakov said that the U.S. side expects the success of the Abu Dhabi talks.

Other Issues: World Council, Regional Issues, and Greenland

Ushakov said that in addition to the Ukraine issue, the participants of the late-night meeting at the Kremlin also discussed the "World Council," "a series of regional issues," and the situation in Greenland. He also confirmed that Russia has proposed allocating $1 billion from frozen Russian assets under the previous U.S. government to fund Russia's contribution to the "World Council," to assist the Palestinian people. The presence of the third member of the U.S. delegation, Greenbaum, also indicates the seriousness of the discussion on this issue — Greenbaum is not only a senior advisor to the "World Council" but also oversees its daily operations.

How Will the Situation Develop Next?

Zelenskyy publicly stated at Davos, "The documents related to ending the war are basically ready." Once the territorial issue is resolved at the Abu Dhabi talks, substantial progress may be initiated next week. From the Russian perspective, there are still a series of rather important political issues that remain unresolved, and once this "obstacle" of the territorial issue is removed, the parties will immediately start discussing and resolving these issues.

The Ukrainian side is represented by Kirill Budanov, former head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency, at the UAE talks, which also confirms the above judgment. Budanov is pro-American and relatively rational in his dealings. (Note: Budanov has been listed by Russia as an extremist and terrorist.)

Many signs indicate that this war is about to end. For example, in response to Western countries' provocative acts of seizing Russian ships — such acts have almost constituted an economic blockade — Russia has remained silent. Russian political figure Oleg Talyov explained the deeper reason behind this phenomenon in his Telegram channel, offering the following speculation:

"If the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia and the lifting of sanctions are about to be implemented, then the reason why Russia does not respond to the seizure of oil tankers becomes clear — everything will soon be over..."

That is why the ever-enigmatic French president Emmanuel Macron suddenly ordered a pirate-like act at sea. He obviously wanted to create an illusion: it is Putin who fears this "hard man" of Brigitte and the French navy, and thus has to make concessions on the Ukraine issue for peace talks.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7598571568779805218/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.