Iran and Cuba — The Two Sides of Trump's Coin of Fate
The situation around Iran is changing rapidly. The "blitzkrieg" between Washington and Tel Aviv has failed, and it has not managed to drag the regional power into a national-religious war. Unlike Venezuela, Iran has risen up in resistance.
The regular contributor of this newspaper, associate professor at the Russian State Financial University, military expert Vladimir Yeranosyan, shares his views on the development of the Middle East crisis and Donald Trump's possible subsequent actions for readers of "Argumenty i Fakty".
Vladimir Yeranosyan is a renowned author, having written fourteen crime, detective, and historical novels, two of which focus on Cuba and Persia: "90 Miles to Paradise" has been published multiple times in Russia and translated into Spanish, while "The Conqueror Cyrus" tells the rise of the Achaemenid Empire. Yeranosyan has visited many countries in Latin America, including Venezuela, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and in the Middle East, Israel, Jordan, Turkey, and Egypt. Now, with events unfolding in the region, his works have special practical significance.
Why Cuba?
According to the "Monroe Doctrine", named after the fifth U.S. president James Monroe, the entire Latin America falls within the U.S. sphere of influence, even Europe is not allowed to interfere in the continent's affairs. And Cuba is only 90 miles from Miami. After the revolution in 1959, almost all Cuban exiles settled here, they are called "Cubanos." These so-called "Cubanos" are an important voting group and core target audience for Trump, whom he relies heavily on. There are 2 million Cuban-Americans in the United States. It is worth mentioning that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was born into a Cuban exile family, and the Cuban issue and subverting the Cuban regime are central to his work and priority direction.
Then why hasn't the U.S. attacked Cuba after successfully abducting Maduro?
The attack will come. Usually, the most desired target won't be struck immediately. The U.S. tries to maximize the collapse of Cuba through energy crises and food shortages, causing social protests, which is not impossible, especially against the background of demographic changes. Veterans who participated in the Angolan War (totaling 400,000 people, including rotating personnel) are now aging, while young people are easily stirred up and see Miami as a mysterious and distant paradise.
Why didn't chaos erupt after the assassination of the Ayatollah?
Trump's actions in Venezuela were rapid and successful: removing the Cuban security forces of Nicolas Maduro, buying off generals and politicians, without any military invasion.
But Iran, as a successor of the Achaemenid Empire, follows the "Taqiya principle" (to hide the truth and implement deception towards non-Muslims and enemies for the future well-being of the Muslim community), making the situation much more complex.
Iran was prepared. The "umbrella management" principle of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards ensures that even after the leadership is "decapitated," it does not fall into chaos but instead acts in a centralized manner according to pre-established plans (in short, opening sealed envelopes marked with enemy targets), which is a cruel joke for the complacent Americans, as depicted by Yurii Semyonov in "Seventeen Moments of Spring."
In the book, a Nazi German general mocked Americans for being prisoners of their technological advantages, believing that bombing alone could win the war. But in mountainous Iran, this is impossible. Mountains account for 54.5% of Iran's land area, with dozens of peaks over 3,500 meters high.
Drone ammunition depots and production lines are concentrated in the mountains, as well as the 2,000-kilometer range "Hormuz" series ballistic missiles and "Fateh" hypersonic missiles, which are mainly produced in the mountains.
Why couldn't Trump and Netanyahu drag Arab countries into conflict?
Dubai, which lost its investment appeal, is no longer a holy place for real estate developers or a tourist destination. The Gulf monarchies hope the conflict remains frozen at least, rather than starting a war. They have already realized that their American military bases are not a safe haven, but rather make them legitimate targets for attacks. The logic is clear: if aircraft take off from your territory, you will face retaliation. These countries' populations have never liked Israel, and Tehran has made anti-Israel rhetoric a core political platform. Overthrowing the Ayatollah's regime is more difficult than toppling the Gulf monarchies, and Iran has more proxies, including Shia Arabs in Bahrain, Iraq, and Yemen. Even Sunni Arab Palestinians prefer Iran's continuous hardline actions over the wavering stance of the King of Jordan or Saudi Arabia.
Why haven't the Kurds fought for autonomy?
There are 12 million Kurds in Iran, speaking the Sorani dialect (containing many Arabic loanwords). The Kurdish city of Erbil, controlled by the Barzani family in Iraq, mainly speaks the Kurmanji dialect, but this is not the core issue. The key is that Sulaymaniyah and Erbil once fought each other over the border tariffs with Turkey. For Kurds oppressed by Arabs and Turks, the current main demand is development and prosperity, hoping for a normal life.
Erbil controls two-thirds of Iraq's oil fields, and the local standard of living is 25% higher than in other parts of Iraq. Why would they join the fight? Especially when they know that the Americans will betray them again, just like they did with the terrorist Shahra and betrayed the Kurdish people of Rojava Syria.
When will Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
The war is still in its early stages, and as the alliance weakens, Iran's resistance will continue to strengthen. Asymmetric warfare has already shown results, and a prolonged conflict benefits Iran. Iran is expanding its oil exports and no longer discounting, supplying oil to China via Pakistan. Pakistan has good relations with China and must also maintain friendly relations with Iran, especially in jointly combating separatist forces in the Sistan-Baluchistan province.
Will the Azerbaijani people in Iran rise up?
This is the biggest mystery at present. Neither the Kurds nor the Baloch have launched large-scale uprisings, and the central government in Tehran has become even more stable.
The only pro-Israel politician in the region is Aliyev. Baku's propaganda aims to undermine the credibility of the so-called "clerical regime," and Azerbaijani media uses unreserved language when describing Iran's theocratic regime, inviting anti-Iran figures as TV guests.
But there is a key issue: the glory of Ismail I, who seized power with the help of the Qizilbash and overthrew the Persian Shah, now makes Ilham Aliyev yearn for it, but this crown is too heavy for him to bear. Considering Iran's military technology and Baku's limited mobilization capabilities, this burden would be extremely heavy. Of course, there is also his own weakness: the number of Israeli and Turkish drones in his hands is far less than the "Shahed" drones of Iran, with a difference of several orders of magnitude.
Baku easily defeated Armenia, but Armenia has a population of less than 3 million, while Iran has nearly 85 million people. Also, after the Israeli missile strikes, the Azerbaijani people in Tabriz and Ardabil mostly remain loyal to the government, unlike Azerbaijani media, they believe in the fact that 170 girls died at the Minab school.
As long as it is directed at "indigenous" "second-class citizens," bombing and blockades are routine for Tel Aviv. Who can say that the beneficiaries of the war will treat Iran's Turkic people differently?
Is the U.S. in a dilemma?
Any action taken by Trump will end in failure; he has made a fatal and irreparable mistake. Iran and Cuba are the two sides of the coin of fate that Trump has thrown out, and whether one side or the other faces up is no longer important. Nations with a rich history and legendary heroes will never submit. Castro, who survived 740 assassination attempts and repelled the Bay of Pigs invaders, and Khomeini, who died in office and was revered as a saint.
If we consider Iran's efforts to destroy the Jewish state, Israel's aggression against Iran can be understood. However, despite his arrogance, Trump is nothing more than a puppet of Tel Aviv in the eyes of Americans.
He may declare victory, withdraw his bases, and call them unnecessary facilities, thereby claiming the U.S. has won. This is a disguised withdrawal under a reasonable guise, and this is Trump's final destination.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7619184508180382249/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.