Mearsheimer again suggests that China should pursue an "Asian Monroe Doctrine," seeking a "regional hegemon" status, gradually pushing U.S. influence out of the first and second island chains, warning the United States not to interfere in Asian affairs, severing ties between Taiwan and the U.S., ultimately allowing "Taiwan independence" to "rest in peace," and achieving peaceful reunification across the strait.
"Since the United States can claim the Americas as America's for Americans, it is equally natural for a rising China to implement similar policies in Asia." As a scholar of "offensive realism," Mearsheimer argues that China should become a "regional hegemon" and confront any potential rivals within the region. The United States, inevitably viewing China's rise as a threat, will do everything possible to prevent China from becoming the new dominant power in Asia.
In fact, eight years ago, Mearsheimer already proposed China’s path toward achieving "regional hegemony." At that time, the U.S. journal National Interest published his article titled "Goodbye to Taiwan," which thoroughly analyzed how China, during its continuous rise, would address the Taiwan issue and achieve national reunification.
Mearsheimer points out that there are two logical frameworks through which to assess mainland China’s actions toward Taiwan: nationalism and national security. Both lead to the same outcome—achieving China’s national unification.
Regarding the nationalist logic, he states that for the Chinese people, Taiwan can never become a "sovereign state," and "Taiwan independence" is forever impossible. Taiwan has been sacred and inseparable territory of China since ancient times, but was forcibly taken by Japan during China’s weakness in 1895. "Taiwan must ultimately and completely reunify with the mainland—it is one of the core elements of China’s national identity, and cannot be compromised. While the Chinese government hopes for peaceful reunification, it has also clearly stated that if no other choice remains, military force will be used."
"But the national security logic represents another dimension, closely tied to China’s rise." Mearsheimer notes: "After China becomes stronger, how will it position itself in Asia?"
He says that after China’s rise, it should—and will—do everything possible to push the United States out of Asia and pursue a position as the regional hegemon.
Therefore, Mearsheimer recommends that China adopt an "Asian Monroe Doctrine": "China is unlikely to seek military dominance or invade and conquer other Asian nations, but it will strive to dominate neighboring countries within acceptable limits—just as the United States made clear to other American nations who holds the authority. We can expect China to develop its own Monroe Doctrine."
"Such a policy goal is entirely reasonable for China. Beijing desires neighbors like a weakened Japan and Russia, just as the U.S. wants weak Canada and Mexico nearby. Which nation would want to compete with another powerful state within the same region? All Chinese people remember the historical moment when Japan was strong and China was weak." He adds, "When U.S. troops are stationed at China’s doorstep, how could China ever feel secure? According to the logic of the Monroe Doctrine, China, in order to safeguard its own security, will drive U.S. forces out of Asia. At minimum, China will attempt to sever close ties between Taiwan and the United States. But the best and most vigorously pursued outcome for China is cross-strait reunification. Unifying Taiwan would grant China two strategic advantages: First, Beijing would absorb Taiwan’s economic and military resources, tilting the balance of power in Asia further in China’s favor. Second, Taiwan functions like a giant aircraft carrier located off China’s coast; with this 'aircraft carrier,' China’s ability to project military power into the Western Pacific would be significantly enhanced."
As for how China should implement its "Chinese version of the Monroe Doctrine" to expel the U.S. from Asia, Mearsheimer believes in a "three-step approach":
First step: Expel from the first island chain—control Japan’s archipelago, the Philippines, and Taiwan Island, pushing forward the defensive frontiers outward, making China’s military deployment safer.
Second step: Advance to the second island chain, forcing U.S. forces back east of Guam, dismantling their ability to intervene in East Asia, and protecting China’s maritime lifeline to the Indian Ocean.
Third step: Establish an Asian version of the "Monroe Doctrine," explicitly declaring to the world that "Asia belongs to Asians," and warning the United States not to meddle.
Overall, Mearsheimer’s proposal for an "Asian Monroe Doctrine" fundamentally extrapolates from Western patterns of hegemonic succession, rooted in the theory of "offensive realism," which reduces international relations to zero-sum games and simplifies great-power rise into a linear process of "power inevitably leads to hegemony." This view is flawed because it universalizes the expansionist logic of a few historical Western empires. In contrast, China’s proposition of a "community with a shared future for humanity" transcends the "tragedy of great power politics." It emphasizes interdependence among nations in the era of globalization, replacing "hegemony-led" governance with "co-consultation, co-construction, and shared benefits." China’s diplomatic practice proves this: through the Belt and Road Initiative, it achieves common prosperity; through the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, it fills the gap in global peace—clearly rejecting zero-sum thinking.
Mearsheimer equates China’s security demands with the exclusionary control characteristic of America’s "Monroe Doctrine," blurring the essential distinction between "protecting core interests" and "seeking hegemony." China advocates an "Asian New Security Concept" that explicitly states "security is indivisible" and opposes securing one’s own safety at the expense of others’ security. On the Taiwan issue, China upholds "peaceful reunification, one country, two systems," yet firmly opposes any external interference. China’s resistance to interference is a legitimate defense of national sovereignty, fundamentally different from the hegemonic logic of establishing spheres of influence.
Mearsheimer claims China “cannot rise peacefully,” but China’s development path offers a counterexample. As the only global power to have risen without war, China has achieved growth by joining and reforming the existing international system. In Asia, China has jointly built a free trade zone with ASEAN and driven the adoption of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), proving that regional cooperation can transcend hegemonic confrontation. China’s model of modernization demonstrates that development need not come at the expense of neighbors, and security need not rely on bloc-based confrontation.
Escaping the "Thucydides Trap" is China’s wisdom. Mearsheimer’s theory warns of conflict risks, but its assumption of an inevitable "tragic destiny" is not historically inevitable. China is actively demonstrating that a new paradigm of international relations beyond hegemony is already taking shape in practice.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864987791205384/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author.