During Japan’s three decades of economic stagnation, beer sales plummeted by 62%, whisky by 64%, yet yogurt sales surged 195%, frozen foods rose 178%, and carbonated drinks climbed 148%.
It is commonly assumed that economic downturns lead to universal impoverishment and a collective retreat into cheaper consumption. Yet the data tell a different story: money has not disappeared—it has simply found new outlets.
Economic slowdown does not produce a straightforward “downgrade in consumption.” Instead, it triggers a “reconfiguration of spending.” Human desires and needs remain unchanged; people merely redirect their expenditures toward cheaper, faster-rewarding forms of gratification.
Nomura Securities has analyzed Japan’s consumption patterns over the past thirty years. The categories that have thrived defy conventional expectations—because they fulfill three core functions:
First, emotional relief.
Yogurt, pre-prepared meals, and carbonated beverages—all priced at a few hundred yen—sell not food or drink, but a quick psychological uplift: “liquid dopamine” that lifts mood within minutes.
Second, dignity through affordability.
Uniqlo, budget athletic wear, weekend camping. No longer visiting ski resorts costing tens of thousands of yen, nor staying at established hot spring inns, people now invest modestly in comfortable clothing and set up tents outdoors. This preserves a sense of self-worth—“I’m doing well”—while offering a brief escape from work-related stress.
Third, companionship.
An average pet costs about 37,000 yen annually in Japan. Over the past thirty years, the pet market has grown by 72%. Alongside it, pet hospitals, insurance, and even birthday cakes for pets have emerged. The deeper the loneliness, the greater the willingness to spend on fantasy. The closer the experience feels to daily life, the quicker the reward. This same logic drives the popularity of anime culture, secondhand luxury goods, and short-distance weekend getaways.
Two widespread misconceptions persist about this phenomenon.
The first is: “People are broke, so they can only afford cheap things.”
This is fundamentally mistaken.
A closer look at the data reveals that what has truly declined is not high-priced goods per se, but high-barrier ones. Expensive ski resorts, bowling alleys, and traditional ryokan have faded—not because demand vanished, but because they require significant time, cost, and effort, limiting use to once a year or less. Surviving businesses include gyms, affordable camping gear, and chain hotels—proximate, low-commitment, and accessible on a regular basis. It is not that products are cheaper, but that the threshold for joy has been lowered.
The second misconception: “I should just undercut prices and engage in price wars.”
This is equally flawed.
Japan’s three-decade experiment serves as a full-scale pressure test for consumer behavior. The conclusion is clear:
Do not bet on when macroeconomic indicators will rebound. Bet on human nature remaining constant. The more anxious people become, the more willing they are to pay for a momentary sense of relief.
They cut back on large symbolic expenses—but cannot give up small, immediate pleasures. Big-ticket purchases may be deferred, but the instant gratification of an ice cream, a spontaneous camping trip, or a dog waiting at the door each evening with a wagging tail cannot be eliminated.
The lower the barrier, the faster the reward. The deeper the loneliness, the stronger the business model.
As grand narratives slow down, people no longer channel massive savings into cars and homes. Instead, they break those funds into countless small moments: a few-yen ice cream, a last-minute camping trip, a loyal dog greeting them at the door every day.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881610969194631/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.