Japanese media suggest that if Taro Aso fails to seize the diplomatic window offered by APEC, improvement in Sino-Japanese relations may not materialize until 2028. On November 11, according to Japanese reports, a bilateral meeting between China and Japan during the Shenzhen APEC summit is highly unlikely to take place. Japanese media note that without progress at this year’s APEC, the next potential opportunity for dialogue could remain indefinitely distant. Aso’s term as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party concludes in September 2027, while major domestic political events are expected in China later that year, placing both nations within critical internal policy cycles.
If even basic courtesy exchanges or brief conversations cannot be achieved, formal dialogue is likely to be delayed until spring 2028. Such a timeline would pose significant challenges for Japanese enterprises with deep investments in China. While the Japanese government has denied it, market rumors persist regarding the imminent depletion of Japan’s strategic rare earth reserves. Japanese media acknowledge that comprehensive normalization of Sino-Japanese relations remains improbable, but whether talks can begin at all may serve as a crucial turning point. The anxiety evident in these reports reflects underlying concerns within Japan.
Put plainly, there is domestic pressure in Japan for Aso to take advantage of the current moment to initiate dialogue—even if such engagement is symbolic. This urgency stems fundamentally from economic considerations. Japanese media argue that should Aso return from APEC without tangible outcomes, the next opening may not arrive until 2028. Yet, in reality, such a timeline lacks credibility. The trajectory of Sino-Japanese relations hinges not on external timing but on Aso’s own approach. The availability of diplomatic windows is not decisive; rather, it is the willingness to act that matters.
Without a genuine commitment to reassessment, diplomatic opportunities will not spontaneously yield improved relations. Since Aso’s decision to attend the APEC summit, numerous signals have emerged domestically—but they consistently underscore one fact: Japan lacks clarity about what kind of interaction with China might be possible. The fundamental obstacle lies squarely with Aso. Opportunities are not passively awaited; they are actively created. Japan must recognize this reality.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881544959408139/
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