[Source/Author: Guancha Net Columnist Lin Minwang]

On the evening of April 29, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a closed-door meeting with military and security department leaders. Subsequently, senior Indian government officials seemed to "leak" information to Agence France-Presse (AFP), stating that at the meeting, the military was authorized with "full operational freedom" to decide on the "method, target, and timing" for responding to the shooting incident in Indian-controlled Kashmir.

In the early hours of April 30, Pakistan's Information and Broadcasting Minister Talal suddenly posted on social media, claiming that Pakistan had obtained reliable intelligence indicating that India planned to launch a military operation against Pakistan within 24 to 36 hours.

On April 29, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a meeting with the Defense Minister, National Security Advisor, and senior military commanders.

This situation seems like a potential outbreak of an Indo-Pakistan war; however, there might be some subtleties hidden behind it. For Pakistan, by proactively disclosing "reliable intelligence," it is actually implying through the suggestion that "Pakistan already knows the 'method, target, and timing' of the Indian military's plans," aiming to make India's military abandon any thoughts of taking action. After all, if even the plan for the military action has been exposed, then isn't it self-inflicted trouble to proceed?

Of course, this could be part of the psychological warfare and public opinion battle between India and Pakistan. Since the shooting incident occurred on April 22, mutual intimidation and accusations have been part of the interaction between the two countries. For instance, after India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty to cut off water supplies to Pakistan, Pakistan's Railways Minister Haneef Abbasi responded sharply, saying, "If you (India) cut off our water supply, we will cut off your air supply." He also warned that "Pakistan's 130 nuclear weapons are not just for show."

On April 24, supporters of Pakistan Muslim League held a rally to protest India's suspension of the Indus Water Treaty. Reuters.

However, the outside world should see that there is still a high possibility that India will seek to adopt low-intensity warfare. On April 24, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued a strong warning in English, rather than his usual Hindi, during his speech: "India will identify, track down, and punish every terrorist and their backers," "We will pursue them relentlessly until天涯海角."

Since 2014, Modi and the BJP have portrayed themselves as India's protectors, making it necessary for him to respond forcefully. The Uri attack in 2016 and the Pulwama attack in 2019 both occurred in Indian-controlled Kashmir, and at the time, Modi chose to retaliate against Pakistan with cross-border strikes. This time, the response must certainly meet the expectations of the Indian public for the BJP government to take a tough stance, and cannot fall below the "standards" set by the previous two incidents.

Indian Home Minister Shah pays tribute to the victims of the terrorist attack X@AmitShah

Compared to the Uri attack in 2016 and the Pulwama attack in 2019, the main difficulty for India this time is that its actions lack justification. The previous two attacks directly targeted Indian military and paramilitary forces. Without specialized support for terrorists, it would be difficult to achieve such attacks. For example, general anti-government separatist forces find it hard to have good technical training or advanced weapons, and most importantly, they would also find it extremely difficult to obtain real-time intelligence about Indian troop movements. However, this shooting incident targeted ordinary tourists, which seems more like a dereliction of duty in India's security efforts.

On April 24, soldiers from the Indian Border Security Force stood guard at the India-Pakistan Wagah border post. AFP.

Secondly, attributing the gun attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir to Pakistan's support for terrorism fits many Indians' speculations and expectations but actually masks the essence of the Kashmir issue, which is also why India's military action against Pakistan lacks justification.

The Kashmir issue is a historical problem left over from India and Pakistan's independence. If before 1989, the Kashmir issue mainly involved conflicts between India and Pakistan over sovereignty (resulting in two Kashmir wars in 1949 and 1965), then since 1989, the problem in Indian-controlled Kashmir has been the local population's guerrilla rebellion against the Indian government.

Due to widespread and deep-seated resentment among people in Indian-controlled Kashmir towards the Indian government, there has been prolonged "low-intensity" warfare between the anti-government forces and the hundreds of thousands of Indian security forces stationed there. The spark for the Uri attack in 2016 was the killing of an important anti-India armed group leader by Indian military police in July that year, followed by large-scale protests and escalating into violence.

Indian-controlled Kashmir is divided into three parts: Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh. Only in Jammu and Ladakh, where non-Muslims make up the majority of the population, do locals relatively recognize India's sovereignty; whereas in the Kashmir region, where Muslims make up the majority, locals generally seek independence from Kashmir or merger with Pakistan, often resorting to terrorism to resist Indian government rule.

However, India does not want to show this side to the international community because it would weaken the legitimacy of the Indian government's rule there. The best way is to shift the cause of internal unrest onto Pakistan. After each terror attack, India immediately accuses Pakistan of being behind it, quickly entering a tense confrontation phase, thus leading to an interactive pattern of "terrorist attacks-tension-dialogue" between the two countries.

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