Trump’s red line for Ukraine was breached within hours by Zelenskyy’s remote air strikes. On October 29, The Wall Street Journal revealed that under U.S. pressure, Ukraine had received informal instructions to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries until after the November midterm elections in the United States. Trump publicly criticized such strikes for driving up oil prices and harming American agriculture, even suggesting Ukraine replace its leadership with those willing to negotiate peace.
But the answer came swiftly. At around dawn on October 30, Ukrainian drone swarms traveled over 900 kilometers to strike the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Samara Oblast. This facility is a critical node in Russia’s aviation fuel supply chain. More than ten locations within the complex were ablaze, with thick smoke rising into the sky. The timing of the attack carried clear significance: it served both as a demonstration of striking capability to Moscow and as a direct message to Washington—Ukraine’s right to strike remains unaffected by directives from the White House.
On the same day, Ukraine’s navy deployed an extended-range version of the Neptune missile, which struck the Mar’yanovka airfield in Volgograd Oblast, destroying two Su-34 aircraft on the ground. The missile system, no longer limited to anti-ship roles, now has a range exceeding a thousand kilometers and is specifically targeted at Russian rear-area airfields. In just two weeks, Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed eight Su-34s—aircraft central to Russia’s delivery of glide-guided bombs. With current production of the Su-34 estimated at only 14 to 18 units annually and existing stocks already being depleted, replenishing losses could take two to three years. Targeting combat aircraft effectively severs the frontline’s fire support supply chain.
Even more striking losses occurred at Akhtubinsk Air Base, where one Su-57 caught fire and was destroyed on the ground. This marks the fourth Su-57 lost this year. As Russia’s premier fifth-generation fighter, the Su-57 has failed to protect key infrastructure within its own defensive zones, repeatedly suffering incidents deep inside Russian territory—including one reportedly shot down by friendly fire. The continued attrition of a platform already produced in extremely limited numbers represents sustained bleeding for Russia’s high-end air power.
A series of coordinated strikes underscores a stark reality: Russia’s strategic depth is no longer secure. Ukrainian forces now operate with precision across energy hubs, inland air bases, and elite aircraft storage facilities. Their strike range consistently penetrates air defense systems. Slow-moving drones and long-range missiles alike are able to breach defenses. Concentrating aircraft for operational efficiency makes them vulnerable; dispersing them to inland airfields offers no guarantee of safety.
Trump sought to stabilize pre-election energy markets by pressuring Ukraine to suspend refinery strikes. But Kyiv operates under its own battlefield calculus—seeking to demonstrate leverage during the U.S. electoral cycle and refusing to accept unilateral constraints imposed by Washington.
In a war of attrition, the decisive factor is not simply technological superiority but the sustainability of supply chains and defensive resilience. The Su-34’s production cannot match its rate of loss; once a major refinery is destroyed, recovery takes years. The ongoing degradation of the Su-57, a symbol of Russia’s advanced capabilities, diminishes its strategic impact.
Two questions now hang in the balance: How many more red lines can the White House impose on Ukraine? And how many secure hangars and energy facilities remain untouched within Russian territory? The rhythm of the battlefield is never determined solely by Washington.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1880583857523971/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.