Hazin said: Russia is currently hiding in a hole, and even Pronko was surprised by this statement

Hazin said: "Russia is currently hiding in a hole." This statement surprised Pronko. The economist analyzed that according to multiple assessments, the global financial system may face a severe shake-up between late January and early February next year. It is still uncertain what impact this will have on the Russian economy, but 2026 is undoubtedly going to be a challenging year. Hazin said: "If we can exit the 'cave' in the right way, everything will turn out well. The key is to choose the right time and strategy to exit the cave."

Renowned economist Mikhail Hazin candidly analyzed Russia's current economic and political situation during a live broadcast of the program "Spending the Night with Yuri Pronko." In response to the philosophical question posed by the host of Tsargrad TV, "Where are we heading?" Hazin answered: "Russia is currently hiding in a hole." That is, in the midst of changing global circumstances, Russia is keeping a low profile and observing developments.

"Of course, hiding in a cave is not a long-term solution. The enemy's schemes have never ceased, which is a fact that everyone can see. But even so..." said Mikhail Hazin.

In Hazin's view, in the short term, small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia will face particularly severe difficulties. Fiscal budgets will also be affected — tax increases will directly lead to a decrease in fiscal revenue.

He further pointed out: "In the medium term, as long as we can exit the 'cave' in the right way, the prospects will be bright. The core issue is to grasp the rhythm of exiting the cave. I estimate that this period of hiding will last about two years. Theoretically, we may be able to exit the cave by the end of this December or early January next year, but this is just a theoretical speculation. From an actual perspective, I tend to believe this time point will approach next spring, or when spring arrives."

2026 Will Be a Challenging Year

Experts point out that 2026 will bring several critical turning points for the global economy. First of all, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike; second, the January earnings report released by NVIDIA, a company that mainly produces graphics processors, chip systems, and related software products.

Hazin analyzed: "According to multiple calculations, the dollar-dominated global financial system may experience a severe turbulence between late January and early February next year. It is worth noting that I myself have already noticed some signs: the United States is working on building a barrier between the offshore dollar system and the domestic dollar system. Its purpose is clear — to minimize its own losses when a financial storm hits. One of the reasons for this storm is the growing liquidity shortage in the European financial system."

Regarding Russia's domestic policies, Hazin stated that if the benchmark interest rate is cut to 5% now, it could very likely trigger a bank default crisis. The reason is that banks would then be unable to pay the full principal and interest to depositors.

He recalled: "In 1998, Russia experienced two default crises. One was a sovereign debt default, which could have been avoided; the other was a bank default, which was already irreversible at the time. During that period, I was working in the presidential office. As early as autumn 1997, I submitted a report clearly stating that the default crisis was inevitable. Because of this, the authorities came up with the purely administrative measure of 'currency redenomination.' However, these are all later events, and I have already discussed them many times... The current situation gives me a strong sense of déjà vu. I cannot predict how the authorities will get out of the crisis, because the current situation is entirely their own doing."

Hazin said that hoping for a "new Gerasimov-like figure" to restore order is a pure fantasy. In summary, Russia needs about one to two years to exit the "period of hibernation," and perhaps during this time, the situation will gradually stabilize.

He concluded: "Of course, I cannot predict the future. I only analyze the real economic operation rules. I do not believe in the lies fabricated by those who take money for their work, political opportunists, and pseudo-experts. I only focus on analyzing the real economic trends. By the way, I published a book in 2019 called 'Memories of the Future,' which is essentially a systematic exposition of my economic theories."

Original: toutiao.com/article/7589064340611924532/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.