The Yomiuri Shimbun Survey: Liberal Democratic Party Likely to Win a Majority Alone
Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun conducted a survey from January 27 to 28 regarding the House of Representatives election on February 8 (total seats 465), and analyzed the initial campaign situation by telephone and online surveys, combined with interviews from all over the country: The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has a clear advantage in both single-member districts and proportional representation districts, and is expected to win more than half of the seats (233 seats) alone; the newly formed centrist reform coalition has shown weak growth, and its seats may not reach the scale before the announcement.
The LDP (198 seats before the announcement) is leading in nearly half of the 289 single-member districts, and its campaign situation is stable in the Chugoku and Shikoku regions, as well as in Kyushu. In conservative strongholds such as Toyama and Tottori, it may even win all the seats.
The Japan Innovation Party (JIP), which governs together with the LDP (34 seats before the announcement), can retain its core base centered around Osaka, but its situation in the proportional representation districts is tight. The two ruling parties aim to achieve 261 seats for an "absolute stable majority," in order to secure the positions of the permanent committee chairmen of the House of Representatives and occupy more than half of the seats in all committees.
The centrist reform coalition formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito (167 seats before the announcement) has defeated the LDP in some urban areas, but overall growth is weak, and the number of seats in the proportional representation districts is expected to be less than the 64 seats the two parties previously secured together.
The National Democratic Party is likely to retain its 27 seats before the announcement and plans to expand its influence by positioning itself as the "third pole" in the confrontation between the LDP and the centrist reform coalition.
The Party of Hope (2 seats before the announcement) is clearly struggling in the 182 candidates nominated for single-member districts, but it is expected to win more than 10 seats in the proportional representation districts; the Hope Party is also expected to win multiple seats in the proportional representation districts.
The Japanese Communist Party is showing weak growth, and its seats may decrease from the 8 seats before the announcement; the Reiwa New Party (8 seats before the announcement) faces a serious campaign situation; the Tax Reduction Japan Party (5 seats before the announcement) focuses on whether its senior officials can retain their seats; the Japanese Conservative Party and the Social Democratic Party are also in difficult situations.
In this survey, 117,533 valid questionnaires were collected through automated voice mail surveys, and 178,735 questionnaires were collected through online surveys targeting Yahoo Japan users, totaling 296,268. Due to some respondents not clearly stating their voting intentions, the campaign situation may change in the final days of the election.
In this House of Representatives election, there are 1,119 candidates running in the single-member districts (289 seats), and 166 candidates running in the proportional representation districts (176 seats) (excluding those who ran in multiple districts), totaling 1,285 candidates.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855939571435850/
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