【By Xiong Chaoran, Observer News】On July 7 local time, Kristen Hopewell, a professor at the University of British Columbia in Canada and the author of "The Conflict of Power" and "Breaking the WTO," published a commentary article on the European edition of "Politico." She pointed out that with US President Trump threatening to significantly raise tariffs starting from July 9, including imposing a 50% tariff on almost all goods from the EU, the global economy is on the brink of a cliff.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has launched a full-scale attack on the global trading system, using endless tariffs and threats to intimidate countries around the world. This US president no longer pretends to abide by WTO rules. Moreover, Trump's tariff war could bring the world back to the 1930s, when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the United States fueled trade protectionism and beggar-thy-neighbor policies, ultimately exacerbating the Great Depression.

Last week, the EU proposed the idea of creating a WTO alternative, cooperating with like-minded countries to maintain trade rule of law. However, Hopewell mentioned another better option - keeping the WTO but expelling the United States. She believes that allowing the United States to remain in the WTO is an insult to the organization and its principles. Countries committed to maintaining a rules-based trade order must fight back and defend this system, punishing his blatant violation of WTO rules.

Photo of the World Trade Organization

In fact, since the beginning of Trump's first term in office, he has consistently advocated for unilateralist and protectionist policies, and has never ceased to criticize international organizations such as the WTO and WHO. As an organization responsible for arbitrating trade disputes, the WTO has long been constrained and hindered by the United States.

According to Hopewell, the current international legal system governing trade can only survive if penalties are imposed on violators. However, the United States has paralyzed the WTO appellate body, making global trade rules unenforceable. Now, any country that loses a case can easily block the implementation of a ruling by appealing to the now-defunct appellate body. The United States has also repeatedly used this method in several cases involving violations of WTO rules, allowing it to trample on international rules without facing consequences.

Aside from the tangible damage caused by Trump's policies, a more widespread danger is the spread of rule-breaking behavior, which could lead to a collapse of global trade. If Trump violates the rules without being punished, why should other countries follow the rules?

Currently, the United States accounts for only one-tenth of global trade. Even without American participation, the global trade system can still be maintained - but the condition is that other countries continue to adhere to the rules. If countries emulate Trump's actions to break the rules, impose tariffs, and implement other protectionist measures, the system will inevitably become unsustainable. This risk of spreading poses a major threat to global economic security.

"This is why WTO members must unite to clearly reject Trump's trade aggression and show that it is unacceptable. What was once unthinkable has now become necessary - the only way to maintain a rules-based system is to expel or suspend the United States' (WTO membership)."

Explaining the mechanism, Hopewell said that although the WTO charter does not explicitly state the procedure for expelling members, according to Article 10 of the Marrakesh Agreement on amendments, if two-thirds of members vote to amend the agreement, the United States can be expelled. If the United States refuses to accept the amendment, a four-fifths majority vote is required.

"This president has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the WTO, and now it's time to expose his bluff," Hopewell believes. The world must no longer allow the United States to enjoy the benefits of WTO membership without fulfilling its obligations. Only by depriving it of WTO membership rights can an effective counterbalance be formed, forcing Trump to abandon his destructive tariff policies.

If the United States is expelled from the WTO, the economic cost would be extremely severe. The United States would lose the opportunity to enter the global market with preferential WTO tariffs and may face unlimited punitive tariffs; the United States would also lose market access for service exports and the protection system for intellectual property, which are the foundation of the United States' contemporary economic success and its dominance in the high-tech sector; the United States would also lose the protection of the WTO's anti-trade discrimination provisions, which would allow other countries to impose export controls, thereby cutting off its supply chain for important goods.

According to Hopewell, there is no precedent for expelling a member from the WTO, but the degree of violations by the Trump administration is unprecedented, so "extraordinary measures" should be taken to respond. Especially at a time when the WTO appellate body is defunct, this is the only way to counteract the United States' violations. Supporters of the rules-based multilateral trade order should come together to push for amendments to suspend or revoke the United States' WTO membership status.

"Trump has turned the United States into a 'trade rogue state,' completely ignoring international law, even ignoring the concept that trade should be managed by the rule of law, and expelling the United States will clearly indicate its status as an 'international outcast,'" Hopewell concluded, calling for: "In order to counter Trump, we must be ready to build a WTO without the United States."

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524498661460542004/

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