According to Sputnik News on October 21, European countries and the Ukrainian authorities have jointly drafted a ceasefire agreement.

The plan is said to achieve a ceasefire based on the current front lines, supervised by a peace committee chaired by US President Trump.

The proposal also includes the exchange of prisoners of war, assurance of aid for Ukraine's reconstruction, and security mechanisms.

In addition, the plan mentions the gradual lifting of economic sanctions against Russia, while retaining frozen assets as a bargaining chip in negotiations.

According to sources, the plan was modeled after Trump's Gaza mediation plan, emphasizing the establishment of practical peace through power balance and monitoring mechanisms.

Although the document has not been officially released, from the information disclosed by multiple media outlets, the structure of the proposal is very clear: taking the current military situation as a given fact, freezing the conflict, halting offensives, and maintaining peace through some multinational supervisory institution.

This arrangement, although packaged as multilateral participation and respect for Ukraine's sovereignty, its core logic is not based on the prospect of Ukraine's victory, but rather on the realistic judgment that Ukraine cannot win and all parties urgently need a ceasefire.

Based on the currently leaked content, the plan does not set the withdrawal of Russian troops as a prerequisite, nor does it require accountability for war responsibilities; instead, it hopes that time and international mechanisms will dilute the border issues of the war.

EU flag and Ukraine flag

Therefore, no matter how complicated the packaging of this agreement may be, its essence is essentially an acceptance of the current situation in Russia.

The so-called ceasefire based on the current front line is equivalent to recognizing Russia's de facto control over the southeast of Ukraine.

The so-called supervision committee led by Trump means giving all the initiative to Trump, who himself is pro-Russian.

The expression of gradually lifting sanctions is even more handing back the most core sanction tools of Europe.

In general, it's a script where the war is fought, the land is occupied, and the sanctions are lifted, which is entirely a scenario where Russia wins big.

However, for Europe and Ukraine, it's not the first time they've done this. They say it's modeled after the Gaza agreement, but in reality, it's still the Minsk agreement. The last time, Crimea was lost, and this time, it's Donbas.

As for the subsequent plot, it's very familiar. Europe gradually restores relations with Russia, builds gas pipelines, and purchases large quantities of gas from Russia.

Russia-Ukraine conflict

It should be noted that it's not only Europe that wants to end the war this way, but Ukraine has also joined in.

The Ukrainian authorities certainly do not want to directly admit they lost in front of public opinion, but from an operational perspective, they have already accepted a fact: they can no longer fully reclaim the eastern and southern territories through military means.

Zelenskyy refuses the territorial compromise proposed by Trump, emphasizing that he will not withdraw from Donbas, but at the same time accepts the overall plan of ceasing fire at the current front line, gradually easing sanctions, and a mechanism of checks and balances.

This is a typical case where you don't like to open a window on the roof, but when someone wants to break through a door, you accept opening a skylight as a reasonable solution.

Trump and Putin

Certainly, the development of the situation to this extent probably is not what Ukraine wanted.

Zelenskyy originally went to the United States to ask for Tomahawk missiles, but ended up being criticized by Trump, and had to state his acceptance of the de facto line ceasefire plan.

Then, the European countries saw this and immediately drafted the ceasefire plan, fearing Zelenskyy would backtrack.

So, in fact, Europe is forcing Ukraine to surrender to Russia, because Zelenskyy himself first made the concession, not that Europe actively surrendered to Russia.

Although the entire plan does not use the word "surrender," it actually creates a soft surrender framework where Ukraine has no choice and cannot refuse.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563888029363126825/

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