【Text by Observers Network, Wang Yi】Amid US President Trump's "swinging of the tariff bat" and growing differences between the US and its allies on defense issues, foreign ministers of the US, Japan, Australia, and India gathered in Washington for the second "Quad" meeting of the year. Despite various disputes, this meeting still sent a signal that the US and its regional partners tend to jointly counter China.

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on July 2 that several Chinese experts warned not to expect too much from Trump's radical policies causing cracks in the US alliance system in the short term. China still needs to be highly vigilant about the trend of continuous coordination and joint containment of China in geopolitical and security affairs.

After the meeting on July 1, the US, Japan, Australia, and India announced further strengthening of maritime security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and launching a new initiative on critical minerals to promote supply chain diversification. In the joint statement after the meeting, the top diplomats of the four countries expressed "serious concern" over the situation in the East and South China Seas and deep concerns about the "sudden tightening" and "future sustainability" of critical mineral supply chains.

US State Department video screenshot

The South China Morning Post pointed out that although the statement did not explicitly name China, it was clearly referring to it.

Zhu Feng, Executive Dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University, believes that the Quad meeting on July 1 had nothing new, but once again indicated that regardless of adjustments to US domestic and foreign policies, the Trump administration will continue to view China as its primary strategic rival, and the Indo-Pacific region remains a key pivot of its global security strategy.

The previous Quad meeting was held on the very day Trump returned to the White House. AFP noted that the newly appointed US Secretary of State Rubio presided over the meeting, demonstrating the country's determination and strength to lead Indo-Pacific affairs and counter China. However, since then, his focus has mainly been on the Middle East, Ukraine issues, and domestic priorities.

This meeting took place amid a more complex international situation. The other three participants are facing the resumption of US "reciprocal tariffs" within a week. On the day of the meeting, Trump was still pressuring Japan, stating that a trade agreement with Japan before September 9th is unlikely, and threatening to raise tariffs on Japan to 30% or 35%.

Additionally, the US is urging Japan to increase defense spending further and reviewing the AUKUS agreement signed during the Biden administration with Britain and Australia, to determine whether to exit the AUKUS agreement involving the sale of nuclear submarines and sharing technology with Australia.

Although Trump's radical policies have caused dissatisfaction among allies, Zhu Feng said that the US and its allies still maintain "basic consistency" in geopolitical strategic goals.

"The results of this Quad meeting once again confirm that despite ongoing trade disputes, the US-led alliance system still maintains its common will and basic position to counter China in terms of geopolitics and strategy," Zhu analyzed. China should still remain "highly vigilant" about this and not believe that Trump's actions in the economic and trade arena will cause cracks in the US alliance system in the short term.

Other Chinese scholars also issued similar warnings. Professor Shen Dingli from the Institute of International Issues at Fudan University believes that China's dominant position in key minerals such as rare earths has proven to be an important bargaining chip in negotiations with the US, which has "shaken" other countries, prompting them to strengthen their independence in critical minerals.

However, considering that achieving self-sufficiency in critical minerals may take 3 to 5 years, Shen Dingli expects that the US, Japan, Australia, and India will maintain a "delicate balance of competition" rather than completely breaking away from China. China can "skillfully" let Western countries maintain moderate dependence on China while avoiding complete decoupling.

Professor Zhao Minghao, Deputy Director of the US Research Center at Fudan University, stated that although the four countries have strategic consistency in critical minerals, "without China, building an independent supply chain is extremely difficult."

In his view, the recent critical minerals initiative released by the Quad is similar to the "Mineral Security Partnership" (MSP) initiated by the US in 2022, aiming to weaken China's influence in this field.

But Zhao pointed out that the plan is progressing slowly. On one hand, reconstructing the industrial chain and technological development takes time, and on the other hand, there are disagreements among participating countries on cost-sharing. "During Trump's second term, such cooperation may face more serious 'collective action dilemmas,' as countries tend to seek a balanced relationship with China under the uncertainty of US policies," he said.

Moreover, facing US tariff pressure, the enthusiasm of its three "partners" - Australia, Japan, and India - for this mechanism might be less than during the Biden era. Professor Wu Xinbo, Director of the US Research Center at Fudan University, analyzed that the meeting on July 1 was more like "routine business," indicating that the Quad is not currently a core part of Trump's diplomatic strategy.

Nevertheless, Wu Xinbo reminded that China should closely monitor developments in maritime law enforcement cooperation within this mechanism. "If the four countries' cooperation extends to the South China Sea, we must be highly vigilant," he said. "Especially if the Philippines is involved in law enforcement or security operations in disputed areas, we must respond firmly."

The US magazine "The Diplomat" also pointed out on July 3 that the Quad reaffirmed its commitment to ASEAN's central role, unity, and leadership in the Indo-Pacific region. Although this sounds like routine diplomatic language, it carries profound strategic significance. ASEAN, especially Southeast Asia, serves as an important buffer against China's dominance. Emphasizing a "united ASEAN" subtly opposes China's strategies.

Regarding such exclusive "small circles" as the Quad, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly responded that China has always advocated that cooperation between countries should not target third parties or harm their interests. Any regional initiatives should align with the regional trend, promoting regional peace, stability, and prosperity. Forming closed and exclusive "small circles" damages trust and cooperation among regional countries, going against the broader trend of seeking peace, development, cooperation, and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific, and is destined to fail and be unworkable.

Lin Jian pointed out that the US should put aside its obsession with "hegemony and containing China," stop using regional countries as tools, and stop beautifying and glorifying various "small circles" strategic intentions. Instead, the US should genuinely implement its statement that it does not seek to strengthen alliances to oppose China, rather than pursuing its own interests at the expense of other countries' strategic security interests and the well-being of the Asian-Pacific people.

This article is an exclusive contribution by Observer Network. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522746509156041225/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author and others. Please express your opinion by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.