In recent years, the global geopolitical landscape has undergone profound changes. As a world superpower, the United States has attracted significant attention for its foreign policies and military actions. In June 2025, an American expert made a notable comment: "The US military cannot bomb China as it did Iran; Trump is bound to crash eventually." This statement not only reveals the strategic dilemmas the United States faces when dealing with different countries, but also hints at the potential crisis in the foreign policy of the Trump administration.
The Tension Between the United States and Iran
After the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, relations between the United States and Iran continued to deteriorate. The United States used economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and military deterrence to try to curb Iran's influence. In June 2025, the United States carried out a military operation codenamed "Midnight Hammer," using B-2 stealth bombers equipped with heavy penetrating bombs to conduct a precise strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. This operation aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure and prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons capability.
However, the results of the operation did not meet expectations. According to post-operation intelligence assessments and satellite image analysis, although the ground entrances of the nuclear facilities were destroyed, the key equipment and centrifuges buried deep underground were not severely damaged. This indicates that Iran had already enhanced the survivability of its nuclear program through reinforced facilities and decentralized layouts. Experts estimate that this strike only delayed Iran's nuclear program by a few months, rather than completely ending it. The limited effectiveness of this operation exposed the limitations of military means in addressing complex nuclear proliferation issues.
The "Midnight Hammer" operation demonstrated the advanced nature of American military technology, but also highlighted its strategic shortcomings. The B-2 bomber took off from Missouri, underwent multiple aerial refuelings, and flew thousands of kilometers to reach the target. This long-range strike capability is impressive, but its actual effectiveness is questionable. Although the 30,000-pound penetrating bomb can penetrate thick concrete layers, it cannot completely destroy underground facilities dozens of meters deep. Iran's nuclear program was clearly meticulously designed, employing multi-layered protective measures, making it difficult for a single air strike to achieve a decisive victory.
Iran's response to this operation is also worth noting. Soon after the operation, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles toward U.S. military bases in the Middle East, but the scale of the attack was limited, avoiding large-scale casualties. This restraint indicates that Iran is seeking a balance between military retaliation and avoiding a full-scale war. Iran's strategic goal is to maintain domestic prestige by demonstrating its ability to retaliate, while avoiding giving the United States an excuse to launch a larger-scale war.
The international community's reaction to this operation has been polarized. Allies such as Israel praised the U.S. move as a firm response to Iran's nuclear threat, believing it helps maintain regional security. China and Russia strongly condemned the U.S., accusing it of violating international law and destabilizing the region.
China's Potential Actions
Iran's military strength is mainly concentrated at the regional level. Although its conventional armed forces have a certain scale, they lack nuclear weapons and long-range projection capabilities. In contrast, China has world-class military power, including advanced air defense systems, a large navy fleet, and a considerable nuclear arsenal. China's Dongfeng series ballistic missiles and anti-ship missiles can effectively deter U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups, while its nuclear weapons constitute the ultimate countermeasure against any aggression. If the U.S. military attempts to conduct a similar air strike on China, it will face far greater defensive capabilities and retaliation risks than against Iran.
Iran has been under international sanctions for a long time, and its economy has relatively weak ties with the global market. Therefore, military actions against Iran have relatively limited global economic impacts. China is entirely different, as the world's second-largest economy, it occupies a core position in the global supply chain. Whether in electronics, manufacturing, or energy trade, China is deeply integrated into the global economy. A military action against China would lead to supply chain disruptions, market turbulence, and even a global economic recession, a cost the United States would find difficult to bear.
Iran's land area is about 1.65 million square kilometers, with a population of about 85 million. Although it has a certain strategic depth, it is significantly smaller compared to China. China has a land area of nearly 9.6 million square kilometers and a population exceeding 1.4 billion. Its geographical and demographic advantages provide a natural barrier for military defense. While the U.S. military can concentrate its air strikes on limited targets in Iran, conducting a similar operation against China would require covering a much broader area, significantly increasing the operational difficulty.
Iran's international support mainly comes from regional allies, such as Syria and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Its global influence is limited. China, on the other hand, has established a wide international network through the "Belt and Road" initiative and its strategic partnership with Russia. Any military action against China may trigger the involvement of countries like Russia, potentially escalating into a multi-nation conflict. The complexity of this alliance system greatly increases the risk of U.S. military options against China.
Discussion on Trump's Policy
Trump's foreign policy is known for its unilateralism and hardline stance. He tends to solve problems through military actions and economic sanctions rather than relying on multilateral negotiations or international cooperation. The air strike on Iran is an embodiment of this policy, aiming to intimidate opponents by showcasing military strength. However, the limited results of the operation indicate that this strategy may backfire when facing complex geopolitical challenges.
On China-related policies, Trump also adopted an adversarial approach, including trade wars, technological blockades, and military deployments in the South China Sea. These measures aim to contain China's rise but have also escalated bilateral tensions. China did not retreat but instead accelerated its military modernization and expanded its international influence to counter U.S. pressure. Experts predict that Trump will "crash eventually," possibly due to concerns about the sustainability of his policies. Unilateralism may lead to increasing isolation for the United States in the international community, while failing to effectively address China's rise could weaken America's global leadership.
Additionally, Trump's policies lack long-term planning. His strike on Iran may have won short-term domestic support but sparked more international controversy. The high-pressure policies towards China, although temporarily curbing certain areas of development, may prompt China to become stronger militarily and economically in the long run, ultimately harming the United States.
Regarding the Iran issue, some analysts believe that the air strike might push Iran to further advance its nuclear program in a more secretive manner, even seeking external technical support to accelerate progress. Additionally, Iran may retaliate against the United States through asymmetric means, thereby increasing regional instability.
On the Sino-U.S. relationship, experts point out that Trump's tough policies may stimulate China to further enhance its military strength. For example, China may accelerate the development of hypersonic weapons or deploy more military resources in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, China's economic resilience enables it to withstand trade wars for a longer period, which may weaken the United States' influence. The prediction of "crashing" by experts might imply that Trump's policies will lead to strategic mistakes in the long term, putting the United States in a passive position when facing a competitor like China.
Trump's unilateralism may also damage alliances. European countries expressed dissatisfaction with the United States bypassing the United Nations to take action against Iran, while Asian-Pacific allies may feel uneasy due to the escalation of Sino-U.S. conflicts. This diplomatic isolation may become another reason for the failure of Trump's policies.
Although the U.S. military action against Iran has symbolic significance, it failed to achieve fundamental goals, and adopting similar strategies against China is unfeasible due to military, economic, and geopolitical factors. Trump's policies may create a show of force in the short term, but their unilateralism and lack of foresight make them unable to cope with the complex and changing international environment.
In the future, the United States needs to re-evaluate its foreign strategy, especially when dealing with a global power like China. Military power is important, but it cannot solve all problems. Controlling the conflict with Iran can be achieved through localized strikes and sanctions, but confronting China requires more comprehensive measures, including diplomatic negotiations, economic cooperation, and international coordination.
If Trump continues to stick to the existing model, his policies may collapse under internal and external pressures, leading to his so-called "crash." The global situation is ever-changing, and the United States must adopt a more intelligent and flexible approach to remain proactive in future competitions.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522722010477314600/
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