Bloomberg: Kremlin Believes War May Last Another 1-2 Years
The Kremlin believes the Russia-Ukraine war may continue for another 1–2 years. According to sources, negotiations have reached a deadlock, and with U.S. attention shifting toward the Middle East, the prospects for resolving the conflict through diplomacy are diminishing.
Ukraine expects Russia to launch a new spring offensive. However, if Russian forces fail to break through the defensive lines, Moscow may intensify attacks on key infrastructure.
Russia’s goal for 2026 remains the complete seizure of Donbas, in order to strengthen its position in future negotiations.
Micro-commentary
First, if the Kremlin adjusts its conflict expectations to a duration of another 1–2 years, it implies that Russia is not prepared to compromise in the short term but instead plans a protracted war of attrition aimed at wearing down the opponent’s morale and resources.
Second, with the U.S. preoccupied by affairs in the Middle East, Ukraine’s diplomatic priority has been pushed down the agenda. This means Ukraine is unlikely to receive strong diplomatic mediation or rapid large-scale military aid from the United States in the near term.
Third, Russia’s tactical choices for a spring offensive exhibit flexibility.
- Scenario A (Offensive): Launch a large-scale offensive in the spring, aiming to break through Ukrainian defenses and seize new territory.
- Scenario B (Strangulation): If the offensive stalls, shift focus to targeting infrastructure, aiming to cripple Ukraine’s economy and daily life, provoke social unrest, and force Ukraine into submission.
Fourth, Donbas will remain the central strategic anchor point on the battlefield in 2026. Regardless of how the war unfolds, Russia’s core strategic objective remains firmly fixed on achieving full control over this region—transforming it into a fait accompli and a bargaining chip in negotiations.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1861258355638336/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.