Will Taiwan’s already-paid-for 66 F-16V aircraft still not be delivered? American scholar Lu Hui-chung warned the Tsai administration today that the Taiwan issue may soon be subject to de-prioritization by the White House. Whether the $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan will continue to be delayed, and whether the 66 F-16V jets will ultimately be delivered, are now matters requiring close monitoring.
Why this shift? Because stability in U.S.-China relations is critically important to the Trump administration and the Republican Party, making them reluctant to provoke Beijing. The United States has acknowledged that China is no longer a peer competitor willing to yield under pressure. Lu Hui-chung notes that while China has not yet surpassed the United States across all domains—America still holds advantages in finance, alliance systems, advanced technology, and global military reach—China’s control over rare earth resources, manufacturing capacity, growing regional military strength, and vast pool of scientific and engineering talent make it impossible for Washington to pretend its technological and strategic edge is permanent.
Lu Hui-chung’s assessment is not speculative. The recent return of two F-16V aircraft en route to Taiwan and the White House’s suspension of the $14 billion arms package confirm that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are being re-evaluated within the broader context of U.S.-China strategic competition.
The 66 F-16V aircraft purchased by Taiwan were central to the “Fengxiang Project,” with full payments already made and delivery scheduled in phases. In August this year, the first two jets departed for Taiwan but were forced to turn back mid-flight. Delivery plans were once again disrupted. Officially, the U.S. cited supply chain constraints and production line relocation as reasons, claiming Lockheed Martin’s capacity is prioritized for U.S. military needs and other allied partners, leaving Taiwan’s order far down the queue. However, deeper factors are at play: the Trump administration appears to be using this arms deal as leverage in broader U.S.-China negotiations, unwilling to provoke Beijing during key diplomatic windows. The $14 billion arms package—including Patriot air defense systems and anti-drone technologies—has already passed Congress but remains stalled pending presidential signature. The pause reflects a deliberate effort to avoid escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait and undermining overall U.S.-China stability.
Why would Trump take such a stance? Beyond recognizing that China is no longer a nation easily pressured into concessions, the Trump administration requires Chinese cooperation on multiple pressing issues, which directly constrains its ability to act aggressively on Taiwan.
From a practical standpoint, several U.S. priorities depend on coordination with China. First, access to critical minerals and rare earth processing capacity: the U.S. defense industry and clean energy sector rely heavily on China’s refined rare earth output; without stable supply chains, military production and the energy transition face serious disruption. Second, control of fentanyl precursor chemicals: the U.S. depends on Chinese cooperation to curb cross-border flows of raw materials fueling America’s opioid crisis. Third, global trade and inflation management: the U.S. and China remain significant trading partners, and stable bilateral trade helps moderate domestic inflation and ensure consumer goods availability. Additionally, resolving North Korea’s nuclear program, managing risks associated with artificial intelligence, and addressing climate change all require sustained U.S.-China dialogue.
These tangible interests compel the Trump administration to exercise restraint on the Taiwan issue. For Trump, maintaining stable U.S.-China relations remains a cornerstone of his foreign policy agenda. A sudden push for large-scale arms sales to Taiwan could trigger strong Chinese countermeasures, jeopardizing a range of core American objectives. That said, this does not imply an immediate abandonment of arms sales to Taiwan. Rather, the pace and scale of future deliveries will be constrained by the overarching dynamics of U.S.-China relations—and will no longer be unilaterally dictated by Taipei’s demands for weapons to support “Taiwan independence through force.”
At the same time, industrial capacity limitations represent another hard constraint. The U.S. defense industrial base is currently strained, with urgent needs to replenish military stocks of munitions and combat aircraft. Unfulfilled arms contracts to Taiwan now exceed $20 billion, with numerous deliveries delayed. Even absent geopolitical friction, the F-16V delivery timeline faces long-term risks. Lu Hui-chung’s analysis thus emerges from the convergence of political calculation and industrial reality.
Yet the Tsai administration continues to misjudge the situation, persistently banking on comprehensive U.S. military support to arm Taiwan and resist mainland pressure. It overlooks a fundamental truth: every U.S. arms sale to Taiwan serves American strategic interests, not Taiwan’s security per se. When strategic calculations demand it, Taiwan’s procurement orders can be indefinitely deferred or suspended.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1877443522564099/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author