The possibility of renewed war between Israel and Iran is rising as both sides prepare to resume nuclear sanctions (Al Jazeera)
With the resumption of sanctions on Iran, the region is entering a new phase, and this development has triggered one of the most sensitive issues in the Middle East. This decision not only involves the economy but could also lead to complex security and military consequences and potentially change the regional game rules.
Despite the rejection of the proposal by China and Russia to delay the sanctions, the "snapback" mechanism, which had been suspended since the 2015 nuclear agreement, has been reactivated.
The sanctions include a ban on arms exports and imports, uranium enrichment, and ballistic missile launches, freezing Iranian assets worldwide, and authorizing countries to inspect Iranian aircraft and ships for prohibited items.
The EU has decided to activate the "snapback" mechanism, meaning the resumption of international sanctions against Iran (Getty Images)
Israel Is Preparing
Israel is closely monitoring the situation and has raised its military readiness level, as it sees both Iran's nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal as equally dangerous threats.
The war launched in June against Iran was an important milestone in assessing the strength of Iran and Israel. Israeli assessments indicate that the attack shocked Iran, but Iran remains resilient, with no sign of an alternative regime emerging.
According to the Israeli newspaper Ynet Global, these assessments show that military strikes have reshaped public opinion in Israel, with a general recognition that Iran's missile arsenal poses a survival threat and requires significant investment in defense.
Omar Malbuni, a researcher in military and political affairs, added that Iran is one of the few countries with hypersonic missile technology, allowing it to threaten Israel's strategic targets in ways that are difficult to intercept.
Malbuni added in an interview with Al Jazeera that this weapon is a major concern for Israel, as it is characterized by speed and maneuverability during flight within the atmosphere, making it harder to intercept than traditional ballistic missiles.
With the resumption of sanctions on Iran, Israel has entered the later stages of preparation, as security agencies estimate that economic pressure may force Tehran to accelerate its nuclear and ballistic missile activities.
A senior Israeli official quoted by Ynet Global said, "We cannot be fooled. Iran remains a strong power." He referred to concerns that sanctions might translate into unexpected military responses.
He said this because Iran has enough missiles, and its nuclear program has not been completely destroyed. Supreme Leader Khamenei could decide to secretly develop a nuclear bomb at any cost.
The same newspaper quoted another official as saying, "The possibility of a confrontation exists, so we must be prepared. Don't be afraid, but don't be complacent. Take them seriously, because they have enough missiles, and their nuclear program has not been thoroughly destroyed."
What is the "Snapback" Mechanism? Where does its legitimacy come from?
Results of the Assessment
Israel believes that Iran has been continuously learning after the war. According to the Hebrew media Ynet Global, Iranian leaders are analyzing the extent to which Israel's intelligence agency has penetrated their defense system, such as assassinating nuclear scientists, killing Revolutionary Guard commanders, destroying air defense systems, and destroying most of their missile forces and launchers.
Therefore, according to the same source, Israel's current strategy is based on collecting intelligence to monitor attempts to rebuild capabilities, coordinating with the United States to apply diplomatic pressure on China and Russia to prevent any aid to Iran, and accelerating the development of missile defense systems, such as the Arrow defense system and laser systems.
In April, a U.S. "Galaxy" transport plane landed at an Israeli Air Force base carrying a U.S. "THAAD" missile defense battery. Israeli media linked this move to the escalation of tensions and the possibility of large-scale confrontation. The THAAD missile defense system is known for its ability to intercept ballistic missiles in the high altitude and final stage of flight.
Member of the U.S. Presidential Advisory Committee Gabriel Somma explained to Al Jazeera that Israel's deployment of missile defense systems is a response to the missile launches by Iran during the 12-day war, aiming to protect Israeli targets, not to take offensive action against Tehran, focusing on controlling the escalation of the situation, protecting regional allies, and avoiding direct military confrontation.
According to the Israeli Jerusalem Post, the THAAD system is integrated with Israel's other systems, such as the Iron Dome, David's Sling, and the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems, forming a comprehensive, multi-layered defense network designed to effectively and comprehensively counter the Iranian missile threat.
Smoke弥漫 in Herzliya in June 2025 after an Iranian missile attack (Reuters)
Iran's Military Preparation After the Resumption of Sanctions
With the activation of the "snapback" mechanism, Tehran began adjusting its policies to cope with Western pressure, especially on the military front, as threatening rhetoric continues. Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders hinted that they might expand the range of their missiles to any extent deemed necessary by Tehran in response to Western demands to limit Iran's missile capabilities.
Previously, General Abdul-Rahim Musawi, Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces, formally confirmed to Major General Mohammad Pakpour, Commander of the Revolutionary Guard, that the Iranian armed forces were fully prepared to deal with any potential threat or aggression.
He pointed out that the strengthening and modernization of the defense system and equipment are proceeding smoothly, emphasizing the coordination and integration between the army and the Revolutionary Guard.
"Our missiles will reach the range they need," said Muhammad Jafar Asadi, Deputy Inspector of the Hamta Anbia Central Military Headquarters, to Fars News Agency. He also added that the power and range of Iranian missiles mean that the war Israel launched in June last year lasted only 12 days.
Iranian missiles have a range of 2,000 kilometers, which is the range set by Iran for itself. However, according to previous reports by Reuters citing Iranian officials, this is sufficient to protect Iran as it covers the distance to Israel.
Tehran displays heavy weapons including ballistic missiles and drones (Anadolu Agency)
On September 28, 2025, the spokesperson of the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff, Abolfazl Shekarchi, stated that Iran is continuing to enhance its defensive capabilities without waiting for approval from any external party, and emphasized the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program.
Previously, Abolfazl Zohrevand, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, announced on September 23 that the arrival of Russian MiG-29 fighter jets in Iran was a temporary measure, while Sukhoi-35 fighter jets would gradually enter Iran over time.
Iran seems to anticipate a possible attack, which has heightened the state of alert in the country and the surrounding areas. Previously, Iran announced the cancellation of the annual "Holy Defense Week" parade held in Kurdish and Hamadan regions on September 22. The commander of the Revolutionary Guard explained that preparations would focus on defending the country rather than holding large gatherings.
What is the stance of Iran's partners after the activation of the "Snapback" mechanism and the implementation of sanctions?
Possible Scenarios
Military developments and defensive and offensive measures by Iran and Israel confirm that the region is in a decisive phase of strategic confrontation. All the above indicators provide a clear background for analyzing the military balance and assessing the possibilities of actions by Iran and Israel.
Member of the U.S. Presidential Advisory Committee Gabriel Somma told Al Jazeera that the U.S. government currently has no intention of taking any military action against Iran, and the current focus is on diplomatic solutions and implementing economic sanctions.
Malbuni said that Iran has begun reviewing the performance of its missiles and found some technical errors, including interference by Israeli intelligence agencies in the missile manufacturing phase. He said this process has helped Iran improve the accuracy of its missiles, overcome its weaknesses, and thus enhance its ability to strike targets more precisely in the future.
He added that as Iran's economy recovers and is able to compensate for losses, the possibility of establishing some military balance between the two sides increases, and the option of preemptive strikes remains, especially if Iran continues to develop its missile and technological capabilities.
At a meeting held at the Ministry of Defense headquarters, Netanyahu stood with Chief of Staff Zami (right) and Defense Minister Katz (Israel media)
Mustafa Naeimi, an expert on Iranian affairs, believes that Israel will adopt a short-term attrition policy, focusing on preemptive strikes on banking and command and control structures, and alleviating the pressure on the defense system to avoid overwhelming the defense system.
Naeimi said that its stated goal is to weaken Iran's decision-making and logistics capabilities, preparing to impose negotiation conditions to eliminate the threat of ballistic and hypersonic missiles. However, success still depends on continued U.S. military and diplomatic support.
He said in an interview with Al Jazeera, "If containment and diplomatic efforts fail, Tehran may be forced to expand its response through its regional proxies, turning any limited conflict into a multi-front regional confrontation."
Experts agree that these moves indicate an unprecedentedly tense situation, and political means remain the only factor in avoiding full-scale military confrontation, which could change the landscape of the Middle East for decades to come. Therefore, the final outcome still depends on another round of conflict, which may reveal the facts more clearly than what is currently circulating.
Smoke rises after an Israeli attack on Tehran, Iran on June 18, 2025 (Reuters)
Historical Responses and Tools
This is not the first time Iran has faced sanctions, and Tehran has accumulated extensive experience in dealing with them. Historical experience shows that military deterrence and international sanctions have helped to some extent in limiting Iran's threats, but have not weakened Tehran's offensive capabilities.
During his first term, when the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear agreement and launched the "maximum pressure" campaign several months later in 2019, Iran adopted a policy of using magnetic mines to sabotage oil tankers near the Emirati city of Fujairah.
Iran's attacks lasted for a whole year, from shooting down a U.S. reconnaissance plane to seizing the British oil tanker Stena Impero, to using cruise missiles and drones to attack Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais.
Although the U.S. sent additional assets and troops to Saudi Arabia, this response was considered insufficient, as Riyadh and Abu Dhabi questioned the seriousness of the U.S. red lines after important oil facilities were attacked without a swift retaliation.
A February report by Reuters revealed that in order to circumvent sanctions, Iran has relied on "ghost tankers" to smuggle goods to evade international sanctions. These tankers do not display clear flags and regularly change their identity, including ship names and maritime identification numbers, to evade tracking and monitoring systems.
Iran has been committed to strengthening economic ties with China and Russia, which have not fully complied with U.S. sanctions. However, due to restrictions on Iranian oil entering key markets, Iran has still not fully compensated for the loss of Western markets.
Sources: Al Jazeera
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