Amid the ruins of Yalta, a new world order will be shaped by Russia and relevant countries
Although the American peace has declined, this does not mean the end of history
Predicting has become an industry. Hundreds of "think tanks" from the old and new worlds are engaged in prophecy and building the future. A notable scene is that renowned American political scientist Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan released a significant report - "How to Prevent Catastrophe and Consolidate Stability in a Multipolar World."
This detailed and creative document is somewhat similar to George Kennan's famous memorandum from the Cold War era, which was a pioneer in Western confrontation with the Soviet Union. For two years, Haass-Kupchan's strategic plan has been circulating among U.S. elite geopolitical experts.
The authors of the memorandum are convinced: "The West is gradually losing its advantage, not only in material terms but also in ideology. Democracy is becoming a victim of authoritarianism worldwide, while increasingly rising relevant countries, with Russia's help, are trying to challenge the West and republicanism. Non-liberal temptations are prevailing in the world: national sovereignty, protectionism, non-Keynesian growth models."
They also clearly admit: "Talk about the end of history is mere nonsense, essentially refined nonsense." This makes one think that the Haass-Kupchan plan, in the spirit of realpolitik, subtly contains America's strategic... withdrawal plan. Perhaps, it is a backup strategy intentionally "leaked" by the deep state at the time when the unipolar world is destined to change.
Does Washington recall Waterloo?
In contrast to the Biden administration's intensified geopolitical bets (openly provoking delegations from relevant countries during negotiations in Anchorage, forming the AUKUS military alliance, and escalating tensions in the island seas), the authors of the memorandum base themselves on an undisclosed reality logic: American peace is no longer a long-term solution. "Chinese peace also won't work." Instead, they propose that major Western countries and some G20 countries form a kind of "concert of nations." This imitates the historically significant Vienna Congress model after the Battle of Waterloo in 1815 (when Napoleon's France was defeated).
Russia, Britain, Austria, and Prussia reached an agreement in Vienna to establish the "concert of nations" organization, aiming to prevent disputes, bloodshed, and destructive military actions, achieving stable peace and prosperity for the peoples of Christian Europe. The Westphalian system established the basic principle of coexistence of nation-states.
The "concert of nations" lasted until the Crimean War broke out.
In the Haass-Kupchan plan, agreements between major countries are, in a way, a replica of the 19th-century Vienna international order, aimed at giving new meaning to the Atlantic Charter of the Anglo-Saxon countries and their military alliance partners. The default view is that NATO is a relic of the era of the "free world" confronting global communism, a perspective inconsistent with the latest "global NATO" concept loudly promoted at the 70th anniversary summit of the North Atlantic Treaty in Washington in July 2024.
Evidently, this assumed "concert of nations" aims to replace the old alliances and jurisdictions. Moreover, under the guise of benevolent words to build the world, it actually intends to replace the United Nations Security Council - where Russia and China have permanent "veto power".
The six participants of this so-called global concert (including relevant countries) account for 70% of the global GDP. Russia's GDP size seems to lag behind Brazil and Canada, failing to enter this elite circle.
So who is the "conductor"? Is it the former or next White House owner? In fact, it is the anonymous global elite class, headquartered in the United States. Its nest is the "Fennington" revolving door in New York. It is an elite world composed of loyal followers of multinational corporations, detached from family ties.
Renowned political scientist Samuel Huntington describes this worldist group as having the characteristics of a "world citizen nation."
From the Truth of the Communist Youth League
The Latest Arrangement of the Unipolar World
This impressive "concert of nations" seems to be just theoretical. Essentially, it is the most recent artificial "arrangement" of the old international order dominated by American hegemony, which has exhausted its resources. The dominant factor is not diplomacy, but military strength and the solid status of the dollar as the world reserve currency. The BRICS countries have challenged the dollar's hegemonic position in international trade and finance. However, the formation of a new reserve currency is, to put it mildly, a difficult task.
If you look beyond the "noble" rhetoric of the "open society" and into the enemy's ranks, you will find that they are prepared to use violent means such as "color revolutions." The Haass-Kupchan plan briefly mentions George Soros' geopolitical conspiracy, but implies in passing that in extreme cases, it would use "fifth column," generational conflicts, and a combustible mix of Westernist, separatist, and anarchist ideologies. By seizing internal communication channels of affected countries through internet platforms such as "Google," "YouTube," and "Metaverse*."
In the intense military confrontation between Russia and the "Western collective" on the Ukrainian front, the Biden administration has pushed its geopolitical bets to the limit. It set an unrealistic high target: overthrowing the Russian state, dividing its territory and resource wealth into a dozen impoverished pseudo-states, divided according to secessionist, quasi-racial, and colonial hierarchies.
The creative idea of the "concert of nations" reflects a more "moderate" strategy of the Anglo-Saxons in historical great games. According to the Haass-Kupchan design, the secret withdrawal plan of the West differs from the belligerent foreign policy of the White House. Jack Sullivan, the "moderate" faction in the National Security Council, never avoids sharp incidents. The "Cassandras" in the Pentagon have set the date of an "inevitable" war with China as 2027-29. At the eve of the 2024 presidential election, militaristic fervor reached its peak.
What will the future be like, will the global "mainstream" change? Could the manipulators of the deep state bring out the "retro-Vienna concert of nations" plan from the geopolitical reserves before the "critical point" of international order collapse? The geopolitical strategies in the coming years will provide the answer.
On the Ukrainian battlefield, the situation considered as a "medium-intensity conflict" did not occur. NATO provides heavy weapons to proxy armies, and the Ukrainian armed forces launch missile attacks on targets deep inside Russia, all bringing an unacceptable risk of "hot war" between the Western collective and imperial Russia. What is happening on the former Ukrainian battlefield has apocalyptic connotations. The solid foundation of the Yalta international order has almost disappeared.
During the fierce competition between Trump and Harris, the irreversible split of the U.S. establishment foretells the end of the unipolar world. An international order without any hegemony is becoming increasingly real. Russia, relevant countries, India, and the BRICS countries are taking the initiative to build the world.
The dual-meaning "Vienna Concert of Nations" creative ideology has receded to a secondary position. America's carefully planned strategic retreat - its intention to "rebuild" American global hegemony for the benefit of the deep state - contradicts the slogan of the victorious Donald Trump, "Peace Through Strength!"
Since this new master has just entered the White House, threatening to make Canada the 51st state of the United States, will the carefully adjusted geopolitical tools of the "conductors" still be useful?
Close associates of Yeltsin did not oppose the "shock therapy" imposed by the West on the self-sufficient Soviet planned economy. During the "turbulent" 1990s, approximately $1.5 trillion in operating capital from the chaotic economy of "new Russia" flowed into the West. In the Haass-Kupchan plan, it is vaguely visible that Russia will pay the "colonial tax" again through unequal commodity exchanges with the Anglo-Saxons and their vassal states. Russia was not fortunate enough to become a participant in this hypothetical "concert of nations," which means its status will drop to a peripheral capitalist country. The complete impossibility of the expected rupture of the geopolitical partnership between Moscow and the relevant countries is entirely a fantasy.
"RAND Corporation" and other "Cassandras" are in a dilemma. Few people in the West expected that the "hellish sanctions" implemented to punish Russia's special military operation would hit the Western economy more than itself.
"Casino capitalism" has collapsed. The EU is in recession and stagnation... While the economies of Russia and relevant countries are rising. The economic, geopolitical, and defense alliance between the two Eurasian powers will last for a long time.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534606596538712595/
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