【Text by Observers Network, Qi Qian】The so-called "reciprocal tariffs" under the Trump administration had been suspended for 90 days, and now the deadline of July 9 is approaching.

According to Reuters, on July 4th local time, US President Trump told reporters that he had signed letters on tariffs to 12 countries, which outlined various tariff levels that these countries' exported goods to the US would face, and these letters will be sent out on July 7th "regardless of whether they accept them." The day before, Trump had said that he would send the first batch of tariff letters on the 4th.

The report said that Trump made the above statements to journalists on Air Force One while flying to New Jersey.

"Letters are better... it's much simpler to send a letter," Trump said when asked about the tariff plan. "I have signed some letters, and they will be sent out on Monday, probably 12 letters. The amounts are different, and the tariff levels are also different."

He refused to reveal the list of involved countries, and said he would announce the specific 12 countries on July 7th.

On the morning of the 3rd, Trump stated that the tariffs could reach as high as 70%, and most of them would take effect on August 1st.

On the 4th, photo from the press conference on Trump's plane

Trump initially announced on April 2nd that he would impose high "reciprocal tariffs" on all of America's trade partners. After causing a huge tremor in global stock markets, Trump repeatedly changed his mind, announcing that the "reciprocal tariffs" would be suspended for 90 days until July 9th, maintaining a base rate of 10%. He pressured countries to negotiate with the US, and threatened that at that time, the US would directly impose additional tariffs on countries that did not reach an agreement.

Previously, on the day before, Trump had said that he might start sending letters to trade partners on the 4th, informing them of the new tariff rates they would face.

According to Bloomberg, Trump told reporters on the 3rd that approximately "10 or 12" letters would be sent on the 4th, and more letters would follow in the coming days. He said, "By the 9th, all countries will be covered, and the range of tariffs may vary from 60% or 70% to 10% and 20%."

Trump also said that countries would "start paying tariffs from August 1st, and the funds will start flowing into the US from August 1st." However, Bloomberg added that tariffs are usually paid by importers or their agents, but it is typically the profit margin or the end consumers who bear most of the cost.

On the same day, US Treasury Secretary Becerra told Bloomberg Television that the US would impose a minimum 10% tariff on about 100 countries and revealed that a series of trade agreements would be announced before the July 9th deadline.

Becerra's interview with Bloomberg on the 3rd

Trump and his senior aides have repeatedly claimed that dozens of countries are competing to negotiate with the US on trade.

However, Reuters reported that after repeated setbacks in negotiations with major trading partners such as Japan and the EU, Trump has become disappointed with trade negotiations. This reflects the challenges of reaching trade agreements within a limited timeframe, covering everything from tariffs to non-tariff barriers (such as agricultural import bans). Most past trade agreements required years of negotiation to complete.

Bloomberg mentioned that Trump's latest threat of sending letters coincides with critical stages in negotiations with economies ranging from Indonesia, South Korea, the EU, and Switzerland, where the most controversial issues remain to be resolved. This aligns with Trump's consistent pattern of issuing ultimatums to break deadlocks and is consistent with his earlier statements that some countries have no say over tariff levels.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that if all "reciprocal tariffs" are raised to the threatening level on July 9th, the average tariff on all US imports could rise from around 3% before Trump took office in January to about 20%. This would increase growth and inflation risks for the US economy.

So far, the Trump administration has only announced agreements with the UK, Vietnam, and a framework agreement with China. When asked on the 3rd whether more agreements would be announced, Trump only said, "We have several other deals coming up."

However, many of the US's major trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, and the EU, are still struggling to finalize agreements before the deadline. Reuters reported that the Trump administration's original plan was to reach 90 agreements within 90 days, but this ambitious goal was questioned by trade experts, who believe complex trade negotiations cannot be completed in a short period of time.

Currently, some trading partners negotiating with the US are still facing high tariff threats. The EU may be subject to a 20% tariff, India 26%, and Japan 24%. Countries that have not yet negotiated with the Trump administration may face higher tariffs, with Lesotho, Madagascar, and Thailand facing 50%, 47%, and 36% respectively.

The expected agreement between the US and India failed to materialize. Since the US-India negotiations began, both sides have consistently claimed that India could be one of the first countries to reach an agreement with the US, but the negotiations quickly stalled. On the 4th, India notified the World Trade Organization that due to the US tariffs on cars and parts affecting Indian exports, India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US. On the same day, India's Trade Minister Piyush Goyal stated that India will conduct trade agreement negotiations according to national interests and is not bound by the US's so-called deadline.

Recently, Trump made harsh comments about Japan. He first criticized Japan for being "spoiled," facing a rice shortage but not importing US rice, and not willing to buy US cars, even threatening to impose "30%, 35%, or other rates we decide on" on "hard-line" Japan.

Regarding the US-EU trade agreement, Becerra hinted on the 3rd that there could be a deal after meeting with EU Commission representatives, and US trade officials will "work together with European officials over the weekend." However, EU diplomats on the 4th said they were unable to make breakthroughs in trade negotiations with the US and may seek to maintain the status quo to avoid tariff increases.

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