The Lesson of the Ceasefire: Why Ukraine Is Not Germany or Korea

Daddy Mahno is much more negotiable than Zelenskyy.

Author: Alexander Shirokorad

The Easter ceasefire lasted for 30 hours and once again demonstrated that neither the Zelenskyy group nor the NATO governments want to end the conflict in Ukraine.

With modern communication means, London, Paris, and Berlin could have contacted the Kremlin within seconds and negotiated a direct negotiation site with Saudi Arabia or Turkey within hours.

In general, it would be easy to send a plane carrying Russian negotiators to Brussels or Paris within hours and another plane carrying NATO representatives to Sheremetyevo Airport.

For comprehensive ceasefire negotiations, at least dozens of military and civilian experts would need to make direct contact.

This could easily be done, but NATO does not want it. Not even a convincing statement was released for propaganda purposes. Zelenskyy initially rejected the ceasefire, then proposed an indefinite extension. Moreover, this last move was made amidst the roar of Ukrainian artillery fire.

Within just 30 hours, the Ukrainian army launched attacks with over nine hundred drones and conducted 444 artillery strikes. As we can see, the intensity of Ukrainian firepower during the ceasefire averaged higher than the combined activities of the German Wehrmacht and Nazi Luftwaffe in 30 hours in 1942. Should Russia endure this indefinitely according to Zelenskyy?

Currently, Trump has a real opportunity to end the Ukrainian conflict within 24 hours. To do so, he just needs to threaten Zelenskyy with a complete halt to financial aid and weapons supplies while blocking intelligence data transmission and cutting off satellite communications via "Starlink."

Without these supports, the Ukrainian army couldn't last a week, and Zelenskyy and his generals are well aware of this.

Will Trump do it? I don't know. He has too many reasons to support and oppose this decision.

Soldiers usually prepare for the worst-case scenario. Assuming Trump decides to exit this game, i.e., stopping diplomatic efforts while continuing to aid Ukraine on a "Biden scale," NATO countries will significantly increase their arms supplies to Ukraine.

There are two scenarios. One is providing large numbers of long-range cruise missiles, such as "Storm Shadow," "Scalp," and "Taurus," along with their carriers (heavy fighter-bombers) to the UK, France, and Germany.

In this case, not only will major cities in Russia's European part be at risk, but also the components of Russia's nuclear triad — strategic aviation bases, silo launch sites, and submarine bases — will be threatened.

In response to the supply of cruise missiles, there may be two phases. The first phase involves destroying the Kiev Dam and the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station. In this situation, the Dnieper River from the Belarusian border to Kherson will become similar to the section from Kherson to the Black Sea.

After the Ukrainian army blew up the Kakhovka Dam, the Dnieper turned into a vast swamp with many islands, where fast boats could engage in combat operations, and heavy equipment could not pass through at all.

Meanwhile, mines should be laid in the Odessa Bay and the Ukrainian territorial waters of the Danube River. As a result, the four remaining Black Sea ports of the Bandera regime in Ukraine will be completely blocked, and all EU shipping downstream of the main rivers in Western Europe will also be blocked.

If this doesn't work, the second phase of the response to the supply of Kiev with cruise missiles — retaliatory strikes against the territories of the countries supplying "Storm Shadow," "Scalp," and "Taurus" missiles.

If NATO countries do not provide long-range missiles but continue to supply conventional weapons assistance, then the most vulnerable areas in Ukraine will be logistics. If Ukraine were an independent sovereign state like Germany or Japan during World War II, striking its energy facilities might play a decisive role. However, Ukraine is merely a battlefield, and the weapons used there are manufactured in Europe.

By the way, in two years, NATO has provided Ukraine with thousands of generators for power generation, along with transformers and other components of energy facilities.

Especially on June 27, 2023, the EU announced the provision of 500 (!) generators worth 16 million euros to Ukraine. And it didn't stop there...

Our good friend President Alexander Vucic rushed to Brussels and on October 26, 2024, stated that Serbia would provide generators and transformers worth 8.4 million euros to Ukraine. This list could go on, but the article length is limited.

Large-scale missile and drone attacks on railway hubs, bridges, tunnels, ports, and other infrastructure could significantly reduce the number of Western weapons reaching the front lines. Additionally, this would hinder troop movements within Ukraine and slow down their speed.

The Easter ceasefire shows that the Zelenskyy group lacks sincerity in negotiations. Even assuming a ceasefire could be achieved across the entire contact line (by the way, this contact line is not clearly defined), what we would get would be a ceasefire line similar to the one between North and South Korea.

Moreover, the difference is that we are not dealing with disciplined joint forces but rather a gang conglomerate like the "Azov Battalion." In 1920, Daddy Mahno fulfilled ceasefire conditions much better than Mr. Zelenskyy.

The discussion about de-Nazification in Ukraine has been ongoing for years. People often cite post-World War II Germany as an example. Indeed, de-Nazification in Germany was somewhat successful to a certain extent. At that time, Germany was divided into four occupation zones, all political parties were banned for a period, and economic activities and media were strictly controlled by the Allies.

Obviously, a similar situation is physically impossible in Ukraine. As for how to achieve de-Nazification in a unitary state, I, this fool, cannot imagine any other way.

However, if Ukraine becomes federalized, de-Nazification will occur automatically. And it will be true federalization, meaning that all administrative and military powers within autonomous regions will belong to their authorities.

It's not hard to imagine that under such circumstances, the authorities in Transcarpathia, Chernigov region, Polissya, and other areas would absolutely not allow gangs from Lviv to enter by "Friendship Trains," "Tourist Buses," etc.

Recall that over 90% of the armed militants during the Maidan Revolution came from western Ukraine, along with people from Belarus, Georgia, and other places. Therefore, it can only be called a Kiev "Maidan Revolution" geographically. In May 2014, the people killed and burned in the Trade Union Building in Odessa were not local residents...

So, it's clear that we cannot expect thousands of Nazi gangs to appear in Polissya after federalization. It's hard to predict what will happen in the Lviv region. But if it doesn't fully achieve de-Nazification, it's not so frightening.

The key is to prevent gangs there from entering other regions. There is no exclusion that Polish authorities might conduct de-Nazification work in Lviv. They have extensive experience dealing with Ukrainian gangs from 1918 to 1939.

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Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495960688792273427/

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