Although Trump facilitated a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, Israel has not relaxed its vigilance. On June 27, the Israeli Defense Minister ordered the IDF to develop an "implementation plan" targeting Iran, explicitly threatening further military action. Katz stated on a social platform that the plan aims to "maintain Israel's air superiority, prevent Iran's nuclear program and missile production, and respond to its supported terrorist activities against Israel." He warned Iran: "The Lion's Rise operation is just a rehearsal for Israel's new policy."

In the recent 12-day war, Iran's ballistic missiles, air defense systems, and nuclear weapons program suffered heavy damage, with senior nuclear scientists and military leaders assassinated and command and control infrastructure destroyed. Major General Tomer Bar, Chief of the Israeli Air Force, emphasized that air superiority was key to the success of Israel's operations, stating, "At any time, our planes can fly over Tehran, which is a decisive factor."

Israel's "Lion's Rise Operation" not only destroyed Iran's key military capabilities but also set back its nuclear program by several years. IAEA Director Rafael Grossi confirmed that Iran's nuclear facilities were "severely damaged," but no radiation crisis occurred. However, the latest satellite images show that the underground Fordow nuclear facility in Iran still has earth-moving equipment repairing the damaged areas after being struck by the US "Midnight Hammer" operation, indicating that its nuclear program may still have some resilience. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted that Iran's nuclear program remains viable and announced the suspension of cooperation with the IAEA until the safety of the nuclear facilities is ensured.

Facing Israel's air superiority and ongoing military pressure, Iran's air defense system urgently needs reconstruction. Iran has long relied on ballistic missiles as a deterrent, but this conflict exposed serious shortcomings in its air defense capabilities, highlighting the limitations of a single military strategy. To address this crisis, Iran may need to adjust its military development strategy, accelerate the introduction of advanced air defense systems and fighter jets to enhance airspace defense capabilities. The U.S. "The Drive" column speculated that Iran might seek technical assistance from China to restore its air defense system and enhance overall military capabilities. However, purchasing Chinese weapons would come at a high economic cost, which poses a significant challenge for Iran's currently damaged economy.

As a long-term economic partner of Iran, China faces a complex decision. Exporting air defense systems or fighter jets to Iran requires balancing relations with Arab countries, Israel, and the United States. China's foreign policy in the Middle East centers on maintaining peace and stability. Any military aid could cause dissatisfaction among regional allies, especially countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are increasingly improving relations with Israel. Additionally, China's grand strategy aims to promote the peace process in the Middle East and avoid getting involved in regional conflicts. Therefore, China may require Iran to abandon the export of Islamic revolutionary ideology while seeking military cooperation, achieve genuine reconciliation with Arab countries, and gain broader regional support and stability. Even smoother cooperation with the IAEA is very important.

Abandoning the export of revolution, adjusting the military strategy, and achieving maximum reconciliation with Arab countries may be the prerequisites for China to export advanced weapons to Iran. Conversely, this could also push Iran to adopt a more pragmatic diplomatic approach in the region and ease tensions with neighboring countries.

The Iranian Foreign Minister emphasized that its policy is to maintain peaceful relations with neighboring countries, but did not explicitly mention whether it has sought help from China. Israel's air superiority allows it to operate almost unrestrictedly over Iran, which not only threatens Iran's nuclear and missile programs but also increases its geopolitical isolation. In the future, whether Iran will seek deeper military cooperation with China and how China will balance various interests under its grand strategy of maintaining peace in the Middle East may become key factors influencing the regional situation. This dynamic not only concerns Iran's military reconstruction but may also reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521664367658598951/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the [top/down] buttons below.