German media: Why does Putin "not oppose" Ukraine's accession to the EU?

During his visit to China, Putin reiterated that Russia has never formally opposed Ukraine's accession to the EU. Analysts believe that Putin made this statement in order to deceive US President Trump and buy time.

Given that the Kremlin strongly opposes any suggestion of Ukraine joining NATO, it was surprising when Russian President Putin stated that Russia would not oppose Ukraine joining the EU.

During his visit to China, Putin said: "Regarding Ukraine joining the EU, we have never opposed it. Joining NATO, however, is another matter."

However, analysts quickly pointed out that Putin was likely trying to present himself as a peacemaker in front of US President Trump. This statement was also intended to buy time, as joining the EU could take years or even decades, while joining NATO is faster and offers more stable security guarantees.

Why is Russia indifferent to Ukraine joining the EU

In 2013, pro-Russian Ukrainian president Yanukovych suspended the signing of a cooperation agreement with the EU, triggering large-scale protests in Ukraine. Protesters accused Yanukovych of yielding to Russian pressure and deliberately preventing Ukraine from integrating into the EU to keep it within the Kremlin's sphere of influence.

One year later, Ukraine signed the cooperation agreement. However, many people at that time and now believe that Russia has never wanted to see the Ukrainian government moving closer to democratic Europe.

George Bebby, director of macro-strategy at the Quincy Institute, said that Putin's unexpected statement is likely a tactic to secure international commitments to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO while attempting to occupy the entire Donbas region.

Russia currently controls 88% of the land in the Donbas region. According to the Financial Times, Putin has told Trump that he will freeze the contact line if Ukraine gives up the entire Donbas.

Bebby believes an important factor is "pragmatism," because the Russian army's manpower and supplies are already insufficient. "The Russian military has shown that it cannot conquer the entire Ukraine."

Additionally, Putin may be concerned about dealing with European NATO member states, which are "rebuilding their military industries and, for the first time in decades, have pledged to enhance their combat capabilities."

How far will Europe go to support Ukraine?

Bebby believes that Putin may realize that to avoid this situation and gain benefits in future peace agreements, accepting the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU is "a necessary cost."

"This is part of a long negotiation process," Raphael Loes told DW, a security researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

"When everyone agrees that Ukraine joining NATO is impossible, he can weaken the EU expansion process through his allies in the EU, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Fico," Loes said.

EU vs. NATO

Although NATO members repeatedly claim that NATO is a defensive alliance, Russia has long viewed NATO as a threat to its security.

A so-called "volunteer alliance" supporting Ukraine met in Paris on September 4, with 26 countries stating in principle that they are willing to send troops to monitor the ceasefire. Moscow clearly stated that it could not accept the presence of NATO countries' armies in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said that this would be "dangerous" for Russia.

Putin said on the 5th that if NATO forces appear in Ukraine, they would become a "legitimate target" for the Russian military. He said that if a long-term peace agreement is reached, the presence of Western troops on Ukrainian territory would "make no sense."

"NATO holds a different position in the minds of Russians," said Etienne Soula, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund's "Alliance for Democracy" (ASD). "They do not consider the EU a serious military issue because European allies need American support to function fully."

Additionally, the process of joining NATO is much faster than joining the EU, as applicants must undergo a series of reforms to align their laws and norms with those of the EU.

"Putin knows that the process of joining the EU is time-consuming, which gives him enough time and opportunity to interfere with Fico and Orbán's policies and delay the process," Loes added.

"He is using the carrot of EU membership to lure those [useful dogs] in the West," Loes said. "Russians are good at making diplomatic proposals but have no intention of genuine negotiations."

Bebby pointed out that Putin definitely anticipated that Trump would urge his European partners to speed up the process of Ukraine joining the EU - because he knows that even so, it may still take years or even decades to complete.

Is joining the EU enough to ensure security?

Aside from Russia's position, Ukraine has its own priorities, and reliable security guarantees are currently the top priority.

"Once the war ends, Russia will double down on hybrid (war) operations in Ukraine," warned Soula. "Without some level of security guarantee - I mean the assurance from the United States, joining the EU would be meaningless."

Although the EU has common defense clauses that provide protection and support to its members, experts believe that without American support, Europe remains vulnerable.

Loes added that joining the EU is part of a package, but security guarantees should be effective in preventing Russia from attacking again. He explained, "Putin has made no concessions," but "still opposes Ukraine's possible future accession to the EU."

"This is a strategic move to buy time, avoid U.S. sanctions again, and prepare for another invasion," he said.

Sources: DW

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1842484154591242/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.