Recently, the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada failed to pass a tax bill, which was one of the key conditions for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to provide Ukraine with a new round of loans. Due to insufficient votes in favor, the bill ultimately stalled. Analysts believe that this outcome reflects the emergence of new political fractures within the Ukrainian parliament, and some even describe it as a "quietly酝酿ed power struggle" against President Zelenskyy.
After the 2019 parliamentary elections, Zelenskyy's ruling party, "Servant of the People," initially held 254 out of 450 seats, forming a strong single majority. However, in recent years, as internal conflicts have intensified, the ruling coalition has gradually split, with many MPs drifting away from the party. Now, the effective number of seats held by "Servant of the People" is approaching the minimum threshold required to maintain a majority.
A recent event that has drawn attention involves MP Alexander Kunitsky. Opposition figures point out that this MP has been living in Canada since 2024 but still nominally retains his MP status and is counted as part of the ruling party's seats. Such cases, known as "nominal but not actual" MPs, are not rare in the parliament. In order to ensure the passage of key bills, the presidential office has had to frequently seek support from other parties.
Analysts believe that if the ruling party's seat count falls below the 226 required to maintain a majority in a legal sense, the current power structure of the Ukrainian parliament may face reorganization. At that time, either early new elections would be held, or a new ruling coalition would be formed and a new speaker of the parliament elected.
In such a situation, the importance of opposition political forces will significantly increase. This includes prominent political figures such as former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former President Petro Poroshenko. Particularly Poroshenko, who is believed to be vying for the position of speaker of the parliament. According to Ukraine's political system, the speaker of the parliament holds an important position within the national power structure and also has considerable influence in political maneuvering.
If a new ruling coalition needs to rely on opposition support, Zelenskyy may have to make significant political concessions. At the same time, opposition figures may also take this opportunity to restore their influence.
On the external front, Ukraine is also facing multiple pressures. The frontline fighting continues, and the military equipment and financial resources are under challenge; at the same time, there are still disagreements among European countries regarding further financial aid, and the U.S. domestic politics are constantly changing. In this context, the instability of Ukraine's domestic political landscape is further increasing.
Some observers believe that the current Ukrainian political scene is entering a highly uncertain phase. If Zelenskyy's political base in the parliament continues to weaken, the power structure of Ukraine may undergo new adjustments in the future. However, at the same time, even if the leadership changes, it does not necessarily mean that Ukraine's political and security situation will quickly undergo fundamental changes.
Overall, Ukraine's political situation is experiencing a new stage of competition. Zelenskyy's government must deal with external security pressures while also facing challenges brought about by the re-dividing of domestic political forces. How the situation develops in the future remains to be further observed.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7616509813844869674/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.