Middle Eastern flames continue, and Iran finally stands firm for a moment, declaring that the "reciprocal retaliation" has ended, but the revenge has just begun. Just at this critical moment, Ukraine steps in to cause trouble, wanting to exchange "Xiaomi" for "artillery".

Spokesperson of the Iranian Armed Forces

Recently, Iran, which had proposed a ceasefire condition, finally made its position clear. The spokesperson of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that from now on, Iran's "reciprocal retaliation" strategy against the US and Israel has ended, and the "chain reaction" has officially begun. In other words, previously, when the US and Israel struck, Iran retaliated in kind, but from now on, Iran's revenge has just begun, and it will be "pursuing them relentlessly."

Since the US and Israel launched their attacks, Iran indeed followed the "reciprocal retaliation" strategy, mutually bombing military bases and energy facilities, but in the end, they never crossed the line of "military targets." However, Iran's current statement clearly indicates that it is about to end the "passive attack" state and choose to take the initiative. It must be said that Iran has finally stood up.

Of course, Iran's statement is not just casual talk, but rather a well-thought-out decision. This war has already lasted for half a month, and the US and Israel have nearly exhausted their ammunition, while the Hormuz Strait is firmly controlled by Iran. As long as Iran does not surrender, this war will not end soon. On the contrary, the United States will face significant economic risks and domestic public opinion pressure.

Iranian drones

Analysts believe that the Iranian leadership is betting on an "attrition war," using low-cost drones and missiles to weaken the economic capacity and political will of the US and Israel. It must be said that at least the current drone warfare strategy of Iran has left the US and Israel with no solution. Intercepting drones costs a lot of money, and not intercepting them may lead to even greater losses.

At this critical moment, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a message that caused a subtle change in the situation. Zelensky stated that three teams of Ukrainian drone experts have arrived in the Middle East, heading to Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia respectively, with the core mission of sharing practical experience in dealing with drone attacks.

Ukrainian drone interceptor

These three countries happen to be the ones most troubled by Iranian drones recently. According to Zelensky, as soon as the war broke out, many countries contacted him privately, hoping to purchase drone interception systems, but some countries lack professional operators, making the purchase useless. Therefore, Ukraine has sent professional teams, including experts, scholars, and technicians, covering all aspects.

Why are Gulf countries so interested in Ukraine's experience? Because the "Shahed-136" drones currently used by Iran are also widely used by Russia in the Ukraine conflict, and Ukraine has extensive experience. Moreover, Ukraine has developed a more cost-effective drone interceptor. However, Zelensky is not doing charity; he is eyeing the business opportunity.

Zelensky

He stated that he hopes to use Ukraine's low-cost drone interception systems to exchange for the "Patriot" air defense missiles held by Gulf countries. Now, advanced air defense missiles like the US "Patriot" are prioritized for supply to the Middle East, leading to a shortage of Ukraine's air defense interception missiles. On the surface, this is a mutual benefit transaction of "goods for goods," but in reality, it is "Xiaomi for artillery."

Ukraine exchanges its excess low-cost production capacity for high-end equipment that others are short of. However, as Iran shifts from "reciprocal" to "chain," it means more frequent and unpredictable drone attacks. The pressure on Gulf countries will only increase, and the demand for Ukraine's experience will become increasingly urgent. Zelensky's "business" might just catch the right moment.

Whether Iran's "chain reaction" can hurt the US remains unknown. Whether Ukraine's "Xiaomi for artillery" can obtain the Patriots also remains uncertain. But one thing is certain: this war is no longer simply "US and Israel attacking Iran," but rather a large chess game involving multiple parties with various intentions.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7616296940359189032/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.