[Source/Observer Network, Liu Chenghui] On April 21st, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce answered reporters' questions regarding the US's use of tariff means to coerce other countries into restricting economic and trade cooperation with China.
The signal released by the Chinese side was quickly captured by foreign media, which viewed it as a "warning" from China.
Foreign media pointed out that the "warning" issued by China should be seen in light of the reality of the global supply chain. China also hopes that third-party countries will withstand pressure from Trump. Considering the deep economic ties with China, it would be difficult for various countries to bear the cost of distancing themselves from China. Most countries will act cautiously to avoid offending China on trade issues.
Some reports analyzed that Trump fundamentally fails to understand the importance of China's trade network. Especially since 2018 when Trump initiated the trade friction, more and more countries have chosen to deepen their trade relations with China instead of the United States.
Industry insiders pointed out that China has now deeply integrated into all levels of the international supply chain system. To replace China, one would need to rebuild manufacturing capabilities from the raw material stage. However, evidently, no country has been able to achieve this on a large scale so far.
"The more Trump threatens, the more countries will side with China."
In response to reporters' questions, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce emphasized that appeasement does not bring peace, and compromise does not earn respect. Sacrificing others' interests for short-term private gains is akin to seeking tigers' skin, ultimately resulting in both sides losing out, harming oneself without benefiting others.
"Why is China warning countries against appeasing (appeasing) Trump?" Al Jazeera reported on April 22nd with this title, saying that US President Trump is pressuring other countries to isolate China, while China has strengthened its tone to "warn" other countries not to reach trade agreements with the US at the expense of China's interests.
The report said that many countries now find themselves caught between the world's two largest economies—China, the main source of manufactured goods and a key trading partner, and the US, an important export market.
However, for most countries, China is a much larger trading partner than the US, making it difficult for them to yield to Trump's isolation of China.
On April 20, 2025, a dock at Shanghai Port was piled up with export containers. Visual China.
A report from the Lowy Institute in Australia in January showed that in 2023, about 70% of countries had import amounts from China exceeding those from the US. By 2023, China had become the largest trading partner for at least 60 countries, nearly twice the number of the US (the US is the largest partner for 33 economies).
This gap continues to widen: In 2023, 112 economies traded with China at more than double the amount compared to the US, whereas in 2018 when Trump first initiated the trade friction, this figure was 92.
"China's critical reliance globally, especially in Asia, means that most trading partners cannot detach from China." Alicia Garcia-Herrero, an economist at Natixis, said, "From critical minerals to chips, Chinese manufacturing is almost irreplaceable."
Al Jazeera described Trump's first round of trade offensive against China during his previous term as "obviously failing." Since 2018, more countries have deepened their trade relations with China at the expense of their trade relationships with the US.
According to the analysis of the Lowy Institute, when China joined the WTO, over 80% of countries had bilateral trade volumes with the US exceeding those with China.
But by the time Trump first imposed tariffs on China in 2018, this proportion had dropped to only 30%.
Since then, this trend has continued to strengthen: In 2018, 139 countries traded more with China than with the US; by 2023, this increased to 145 countries. Currently, approximately 70% of global economies trade more with China than with the US, a significant leap from 15% in 2001.
"Trump seems not to fully understand the importance of China's trade network," Garcia-Herrero said, "and he has not provided enough incentives, such as more investment, making it unlikely to succeed."
She pointed out that a few countries with strong trade ties with the US, like Mexico, might limit Chinese imports, but for most of America's other trading partners, China's presence in the supply chain is so crucial that decoupling is almost impossible.
In fact, globally, China has become an indispensable source of imports.
The Trump tariff policy triggered a buying spree among American consumers, who purchased "Made in China" baby products. Visual China.
Foreign media noticed that in 2022, the EU's trade deficit with China reached $432 billion, a sharp increase compared to $165 billion in 2016. China accounted for 20% of the EU's commodity imports, while in the UK, this proportion was 10%. Chancellor Reeves of the UK recently admitted that reducing trade with China would be "extremely foolish."
In developing countries, China's role in trade is equally crucial. About a quarter of Bangladesh's and Cambodia's imports come from China. Nearly one-fifth of Nigeria and Saudi Arabia's imports are from China.
Garcia-Herrero said, "Trump's trade policies are shortsighted. Attempting to pry open trade relations with China may work in some countries with US military bases... these countries may be forced to accept US demands."
"But for most countries, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere, the more threats Trump makes, the more these countries will side with China," she said.
Replace China? "No country has this capability yet."
The Indian Express reported on April 21st, citing former trade official and head of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), Ajai Srivastava, stating that the "warning" from China should be viewed in light of the reality of the global supply chain.
He pointed out that major economies including the US, EU, Japan, South Korea, and India still heavily rely on China for industrial goods and consumer products.
"China is deeply embedded in every level of the global production system: primary (finished products), secondary (intermediate products), and tertiary (components). Although the 'China+1' strategy has reduced some countries' dependence on Chinese finished products, the global economy remains heavily reliant on China in the secondary and tertiary critical input layers."
"To completely replace China, one would need to rebuild manufacturing capabilities from the raw material stage – however, no country has achieved this on a large scale yet." Srivastava analyzed.
The New York Times noted that some countries may make concessions in China-related areas to the US, but countries are carefully avoiding offending China.
"Deutsche Welle" mentioned in discussing how countries will balance relations with the US and China that although some countries (especially Southeast Asian countries) benefited from the Sino-US trade tensions in the past by taking over supply chains transferred from China, they must still proceed cautiously. Over the past two decades, most countries have become heavily dependent on trade with China and seek to deepen cooperation opportunities.
Data shows that in 2024, ASEAN-China trade volume (US$975 billion) was more than double that of ASEAN-US trade volume (US$398 billion).
"The reality is that no country wants to pick sides," said Bo Zhengyuan, a partner at the China Policy Consulting Institution Plenum. "If countries highly depend on China in investment, industrial infrastructure, technical expertise, and consumption, I don't think they will cater to US demands."
"Looking at the data, approximately 20% of Japanese companies' profits come from the US, and about 15% from China," said Jesper Koer, an expert at Monex Group, an online trading operator in Japan. "Clearly, Japan does not want (forced) to choose between the US and China."
The Washington Post noted that while the Sino-US trade situation remains deadlocked, winning support from other countries is China's top priority.
Minghao Zhao, deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, said that China is focusing its efforts on strengthening exchanges with Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asian countries.
"China has realized that 'strategic decoupling' may be the ultimate goal of the US, and negotiations are merely a delaying tactic," said Zhao Minghao. "China hopes that third-party countries like Vietnam can withstand pressure from the Trump administration."
Yong Wang, director of the Center for American Studies at Peking University, said that China hopes to invest in manufacturing in other countries to alleviate concerns about cheap goods dumping, and can "create a large number of jobs and introduce Chinese technology." "Neighboring countries are crucial to China's development and security, so these countries do not necessarily need to align with the US."
On April 16th, Paul Krugman, a professor at City University of New York and 2008 Nobel laureate in Economics, wrote a signed article titled this on Substack, directly pointing out that in this round of trade war, "China, not the US, is on the winning side."
Krugman said that Trump does not understand the true meaning of trade, which lies in "what you can buy, not what you can sell." He explained that the US sells mainly agricultural products to China, which can easily find substitutes, while the US finds it difficult to find alternatives for Chinese goods.
Krugman believes that the current US leadership is far from "wise and clear-headed" and has lost the trust of allies, so the policy of attempting to isolate China through trade negotiations will not work.
Roger Karma, a columnist for The Atlantic Monthly, predicted on the 20th that Trump will eventually make concessions on trade issues.
He noticed that Spain recently announced its intention to strengthen relations with China; the EU recently agreed to restart negotiations to resolve trade disputes over Chinese electric vehicle imports and will send a delegation to China in July; South Korea and Japan recently revealed that they will restart long-stalled free trade agreement negotiations with China; Vietnam signed dozens of new economic agreements with China this week.
"Trump's tariff policy sounds a bit like the 'disastrous' American military adventures he often criticizes. Only this time, he is leading the charge himself." Karma wrote.
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