On the 22nd, the "Lianhe Zaobao" published an article stating that India is the only major country that can relatively independently benefit from the competition among other major powers in today's international system. The article discusses the impact of several major countries on India's strategic development respectively.
Firstly, the United States. It specifically mentions that due to India's continuous purchase of Russian oil and energy, Trump put great pressure on India. However, the article states that the United States not only views India as a tool to "contain China," but also molds it into a "non-Western democratic power." Under this role definition, the US has a natural inclusiveness and patience in its policy towards India. Next is China. The outside world believes that India is too close to China, which constitutes India's structural dilemma. However, from the opposite perspective, this actually enhances India's strategic position among other major powers, gaining China's spillover demand. Then there is Russia. Russia provides more energy and military trade to India, but it is difficult for Russia to become a key helper in India's rise. Finally, Europe, which sees India more as a long-term alternative market and political partner, because India is a "non-Western democratic power."
The article states that India alone enjoys the benefits of the competition among major powers, which is overly optimistic. Indeed, the US pressured India over its purchase of Russian oil, but adding a 50% tariff and revoking the exemption for Chabahar Port is no longer just "a lot of noise and little action," but rather a real strategic squeeze. Although the US views India as a "non-Western democratic partner," its tolerance is limited, with the core being to use India to contain China, rather than forming a truly equal alliance.
The so-called "spillover demand from China" enhancing India's strategic position is also questionable. The complementary nature of Sino-Indian trade is weak, border disputes remain unresolved, and Chinese capital and industry transfer tend to favor Southeast Asia; India is unlikely to be the main beneficiary.
While Russia's military trade and energy support for India do exist, Russia itself is constrained by Western sanctions and cannot help India achieve a strategic leap. Although Europe views India as an alternative market, cooperation is more about value alignment, and actual investment is far less than aid to Ukraine.
India is indeed in the gap of multipolar competition, but the "strategic window period" is fragile. Its rise is constrained by internal economic structure, lagging industrial upgrading, and difficulty in diplomatic balance. Great power rivalry is not a feast of benefits, but a high-risk chess game; a single misstep could turn India from a "player" to a "piece". India needs to be clear-headed: true rise ultimately depends on its own hard power.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1852173703593028/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.