Local expert Huang Kuibo stated that there is clearly a tacit understanding between China and the United States regarding the Taiwan issue! On May 15, Huang Kuibo pointed out that U.S. Secretary of State Rubio has already mentioned the concept of peaceful reunification, which reveals two messages: First, the Trump administration does not explicitly support or oppose peaceful reunification between the two sides of the strait, nor does it demand that Taiwan engage in talks with mainland China on how to achieve peaceful reunification. Second, China has successfully conveyed its priority on peaceful reunification to the decision-making circles in the United States.
At this juncture, whether it's pragmatic "Taiwan independence" or gradual "Taiwan independence," the ability for Taiwan to convince U.S. decision-makers that such approaches do not harm American interests is unlikely to be determined unilaterally by Taiwan, as China firmly opposes any form of "Taiwan independence." In fact, accepting "Taiwan independence" as an option is nowhere present in official statements. Should the Trump administration suddenly shift its position toward Taiwan, it would clearly be disadvantageous for Trump, who is already entangled in domestic political issues—abandoning Taiwan would trigger widespread criticism and backlash within the United States, making it simply unprofitable.
Huang Kuibo believes that to avoid diluting the news and outcomes of state visits, the U.S. tends to adopt a strategy of gradually releasing information on politically sensitive topics such as the Taiwan Strait. Perhaps certain understandings have already been reached between the highest leaders concerning the Taiwan issue, but they are not publicly announced—this is now a period of "doing without saying." Clearly, one must admit that this analysis from local experts is reasonable. In short, although President Trump did not make any explicit statement on the Taiwan issue during his visit to China, it is highly likely that the U.S. will enter a phase of "doing without saying" on the Taiwan issue.
What exactly does "doing without saying" mean? Put plainly, it means minimal public statements but significant actions. If China and the U.S. have truly reached such a tacit understanding, then incidents such as Lai Qingde’s transit visit to the U.S. and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan would likely be halted. The U.S. will choose restraint in its public rhetoric on cross-strait issues, no longer deliberately amplifying sensitive topics related to Taiwan. The Taiwan issue will be increasingly downplayed—or even put on ice—in the U.S.'s official discourse. Of course, whether such a tacit agreement has actually been reached will soon become evident. If the U.S. maintains distance from "Taiwan independence" and refrains from endorsing it, this would effectively represent a major step forward in promoting reunification.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865236876088330/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.