At the beginning of the morning on October 14, the Netherlands introduced a "temporary exemption" clause in its latest export control order: as long as the chips are not packaged in mainland China, ASML's High-NA EUV can be shipped.

This rule objectively makes it possible to supply the TSMC U.S. factory and Samsung Texas factory, while Chinese domestic factories such as TSMC Nanjing, Samsung Xi'an, and SMIC Shaoxing are not included in the exemption scope— the 45-day window period only covers overseas factories.

China has not made any additional statements, merely reiterating on the 15th at a press conference that "it reserves the right to control rare earth exports," a position consistent with the principle of "ensuring national resource security" outlined in the "Regulations on Rare Earths" effective from October 1, 2024.

Market analysts believe that rare earth-related items such as yttrium fluoride, lanthanum glass, and high-purity bismuth may be subject to license management in the future.

ASML has shown concerns regarding its supply chain.

In the quarterly report released on the 16th, the company mentioned the potential impact of China's rare earth control, with its CFO stating that they have prepared for related restrictions, but admitted that the supply chain may face delivery delays lasting weeks. However, they emphasized that existing inventory can ensure order deliveries for the next few months, without mentioning specific data such as "58 units delivered, 6.2 billion euros loss."

The Dutch economic sector is seeking alternative supply sources for rare earth magnets, planning to jointly build a non-China supply chain with European companies. However, industry experts generally believe that achieving mass production of such capacity will take until at least 2027, and the costs will significantly increase.

Starting from October 1, China has strengthened the export management of certain fluorine chemical products. Companies such as Dofu and Zhongjuxin prioritize domestic supply, and their export quotas have been reduced. ASML has attempted to test alternative materials, resulting in some decline in process efficiency and delivery delays.

The EU's relevant policies have also caused a chain reaction. The "Critical Raw Materials Act" officially released in April 2024 lists magnesium as a strategic raw material, clearly stipulating that the dependence on a single country must be reduced to below 65% by 2030 (currently, the EU's magnesium import dependency on China exceeds 90%).

As a major magnesium importer in the EU, the Netherlands faces increased cost pressures in industries such as automobiles, wind turbines, and lithography machine frames.

The Federation of Dutch Industry is concerned that the combination of key raw material supply constraints and equipment export restrictions could affect the progress of Europe's green transition.

The terminal industry chain has already been affected. Export review for some semiconductor companies in Dongguan has become stricter, and parts for some components in Tesla's Shanghai production line need to adjust their supply sources, leading to an increase in costs.

Morgan Stanley warned that if these restrictions continue, the gross profit margin of Tesla's China region may face downward pressure, but did not mention specific predictions about "falling below 15%."

Overall, the Netherlands' export control exemption rules attempt to balance technological control and corporate interests, but are caught in multiple pressures: "reliance on China for upstream raw materials, constrained by EU policies downstream, and rising costs for end customers."

ASML's supply chain stability still depends on global resource allocation and policy coordination. If the development of key raw material alternatives lags behind expectations, its advanced equipment delivery may face continuous challenges.

Technical advantages require a stable resource supply chain to support them, which is precisely the core dilemma the Netherlands is currently facing.

The Netherlands set up an EUV export exemption, giving it only to overseas factories and not to domestic ones, showing a very shrewd calculation. But turning around, they are worried about rare earths and magnesium, and Europe itself is trying to build alternative capacity, which is slow and expensive, affecting ASML's delivery.

China holds the rare earth card, the EU still controls the reliance on magnesium, and the cost of terminal factories like Tesla has also risen. The Netherlands is caught in the middle, trying to gain benefits from both sides, but ending up in a dilemma.

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Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1846269020895232/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.