It is unlikely that the outside world could have anticipated the severity of Kadyrov's condition. His funeral arrangements have already been made, and there is no trace of the aura of a strong leader on his body.

In recent months, Ramzan Kadyrov, the round-figured leader of Chechnya, has suddenly become very thin. This may not be a short-term weight loss or image change, but rather a clear sign of late-stage organ failure.

Kadyrov's Health Deteriorates Rapidly, Accelerating Succession Arrangements

According to internal sources from the Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation, six years ago, Kadyrov was diagnosed with pancreatic necrosis. Since then, he has long refused proper treatment, self-medicated, and frequently participated in high-intensity public activities, leading to repeated deterioration of his condition.

This February, a medical team installed a nephrostomy drainage system for him. Although this can prolong his life, it must avoid strenuous exercise and maintain rest. However, he still insisted on appearing in public to maintain his authoritative image.

More shockingly, in July, foreign media reported that Kadyrov had a drowning incident while on vacation in Bodrum, Turkey, and lost consciousness for a time. He was rescued and sent to a private hospital ICU.

Analysts point out that this incident may be related to his severe decline in physical function, and even the possibility of using this opportunity to undergo major surgeries such as organ transplants.

In August, he only presided over one meeting and a forum in public, with other affairs handled by his deputy Magomed Daudov.

This physical condition also explains why he accelerated transferring power to his 17-year-old son Adam and extensively placed family members in key positions — this is the final layout to ensure the family's political legacy in the face of imminent death.

Completion of the Family Empire Layout: Over 80 Relatives Control Key Positions in Military, Politics, and Economy

Facing the potential political vacuum, Kadyrov is completing the power transfer at an unprecedented speed. According to foreign media statistics, he has already placed more than 80 relatives in the Chechen government, security agencies, economic institutions, and legislative systems, building a complex "family dynasty."

Among them, his son Adam Kadyrov became the core successor. Despite being only 17 years old (born in November 2007), Adam has held multiple positions: head of the Chechen security department, head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, secretary of the Security Council, and recently appointed to supervise tax work — this position means he will control the financial lifeline of Chechnya.

Additionally, his daughter Khadzhart took the position of vice-chairman of the government, and Hutmat became the deputy director of the secretariat. Several sons-in-law hold key positions in health, healthcare, and local governments. The entire family formed marital alliances with at least 15 local political families, forming a solid interest community.

This "family" style power structure is both a means for Kadyrov to consolidate his rule and a defensive strategy against potential Moscow intervention. He tried to send a clear message to the Kremlin: if they forcibly replace the leader, the situation in Chechnya might spiral out of control.

Preliminary Power Transfer: Political Games Behind the 17-Year-Old Youth Taking Power

Adam Kadyrov's rapid rise far exceeds conventional political logic. According to Russian law, the head of a republic must be at least 30 years old, and Adam is still underage, theoretically not eligible to take over.

However, Kadyrov clearly intended to bypass institutional restrictions — by allowing his son to control the armed forces, intelligence system, and fiscal system, achieving a "de facto succession."

Notably, Adam is not the only candidate. The Kremlin prefers to support Alauddinov, the commander of the Chechen special forces, as an alternative.

This person is loyal to Moscow and has shown active participation in the Ukraine war, while the Chechen forces under Kadyrov's rule have "worked but did not contribute," which has already caused dissatisfaction within the Kremlin.

Therefore, Kadyrov is urgently trying to finalize the power consolidation before his death, in order to force Putin to accept the status quo while he still has influence. He has met with Putin multiple times, trying to persuade him to recognize the special status of his family, but has yet to receive a clear response.

Succession Dilemma: Can a Teenage Boy Handle a Steel政权?

Although the power network has been initially formed, whether Adam Kadyrov has the ability to manage Chechnya remains a big question. The Chechen political system has long relied on violent intimidation and personal loyalty, rather than institutional governance.

Once the young master leads, internal factions may seize the opportunity to compete for dominance, and external forces may also take advantage of the situation. Historically, changes in the Chechen regime often lead to bloody turmoil. Even with a long-standing family setup, it is difficult to prevent internal division.

Of course, Ramzan Kadyrov himself came to power after his father Ahmed Kadyrov was assassinated, relying on Putin's support.

In 2004, 53-year-old Ahmed was blown into the air during a Victory Day parade, where a bomb had been planted a year earlier. At the age of 28, Ramzan quickly took over power in Chechnya under Putin's strong support.

Although he was too young to immediately become president, he actually ruled as prime minister and officially became the president of Chechnya in 2007 when he turned 30.

This succession process highlights the Kremlin's logic of supporting loyal local strongmen: as long as they can effectively maintain stability and absolutely obey the center, the Kremlin allows their hereditary power. But the prerequisite is that the agent must have strong control and completely obey the federal authority.

Although Putin tolerates Kadyrov's "semi-independent" status, the prerequisite is absolute loyalty and effective stability maintenance. If the Kadyrov family shows signs of deviation or causes regional instability, the Kremlin will definitely act decisively.

Conclusion: The End of an Era and an Uncertain Future

Ramzan Kadyrov's weakening marks the end of the era of "strong man politics" in Chechnya. He spent twenty years building a ruling system centered around his family, and now he is fully pushing for hereditary power in the last stage of his life. However, modern national governance systems are ultimately difficult to accommodate "feudal-style" succession for a long time.

Adam Kadyrov's ascension is both the continuation of his father's will and a high-risk political gamble. Can he stabilize the situation before reaching adulthood? Will Moscow tacitly allow this "minority succession"? Will Chechnya fall into turmoil again?

The answers to these questions not only concern the fate of a region, but also test the resilience and limits of the local power structure in the Putin era.

As the emaciated Kadyrov lies in bed watching his son step onto the stage, he may realize: the real test has just begun.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552199668281705003/

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